tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705460.post116008766626583421..comments2024-01-21T00:21:39.004-06:00Comments on Three Wise Men: Gas prices down!Alexander Wolfehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03041808057755360625noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705460.post-1160146571147283622006-10-06T09:56:00.000-05:002006-10-06T09:56:00.000-05:00Fan Boy...everything you just said is wrong. First...Fan Boy...everything you just said is wrong. First of all, the fact that OPEC has said it <I>intends</I> to cut oil prices has sent oil prices higher already. But this is not speculatory.You can <A HREF="http://www.platts.com/HOME/News/9427553.xml?sub=HOME&p=HOME/News" REL="nofollow">check it</A> for yourself, but let me give you a quote:<BR/><BR/>"On Thursday, a senior OPEC delegate said the cartel was planning to<BR/>reduce crude production by 1 million b/d "as soon as possible" in order to<BR/>bring high global crude inventories down to more "normal" levels. OPEC<BR/>produced an average of 29.91 million b/d in August, according to a Platts<BR/>survey of OPEC and industry officials. <BR/> All OPEC members except for Indonesia and Iraq are expected to take part<BR/>in the output cut, the delegate said." <BR/><BR/>So what do you say now?<BR/><BR/> Second, even if they decided not to in the end, that has no bearing on the truth of what I said, which is that gas prices will rise again. According to the founder of gasbuddy.com, they're <A HREF="http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/localnews/stories/DN-gasprices_30met.ART.State.Edition1.3178745.html" REL="nofollow">bottoming out</A> already. Gas prices always rise in the winter and summer. We may see seasonal fluctuations, but that means our yearly average, were it to stay the same from year to year, is still somewhere over $2 a gallon. Probably in the area of $2.30. That's just a guess though.<BR/><BR/>Now as for the oil shale, you've been reading and believing too many right-wing rants. There <I>might</I> be nearly 2 trillion barrels of oil (the highest reliable number is 1 though) in that oil shale. But there's oil everywhere that we can't extract at prices to make it worth it. <A HREF="http://austinbay.net/blog/?p=597" REL="nofollow">Read this</A>:<BR/><BR/>"Last fall a couple of exploration geologists told me that a sustained $55 to $60 a barrel for oil made Alberta’s oil sands (tar sands) economically feasible. $70 made oil shale pay. Some of the new resovery technologies may make the price point somewhere in the $35 a barrel range– but that is speculative. Still, Saudi Arabia remains the swing distributor. It can whipsaw the price, though increasing Indian and Chinese demand means over the long haul oil won’t be cheap."<BR/><BR/>In short, it requires too much money to make money. It's true that some technology might come along in the future to make it more profitable. We don't know. <BR/><BR/>It was not "placed in reserve" 20 years ago. It was simply abandoned because it wasn't worth it <B>even at the time of the oil crisis in the 70's</B>. Given that oil was more expensive then than now (adjusted for inflation), that ought to tell you something.<BR/><BR/>Also, as for your claim that it would last 500 years, the <A HREF="http://www.greencarcongress.com/2006/01/revised_numbers.html" REL="nofollow">US uses</A> over 20 million barrels of oil a day. With 1 trillion barrels of oil, that means a supply for a max of 133 years. <BR/><BR/>Hey, that's really looking out for the future. Instead of doing the right thing and switching over to ethanol, let's just dump the problem off a couple of generations down the road, just like our ancestors did with us. The problem with that is the payoff gets higher the longer you push it off. <BR/><BR/>And besides that, let's assume you're right and we're in for a rosy future of burning cheap oil. Why does that release us from our responsibility of not destroying the environment? Sure, energy dependency is something I want as badly as a Republican, but not at the expense of ruining our land, air and water further. Let's just ruin that beautiful land in Colorado and Utah, huh? Do we really want that? Not me.Nat-Wuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11378831467642601979noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7705460.post-1160102927450407932006-10-05T21:48:00.000-05:002006-10-05T21:48:00.000-05:00Good points. The only thing I don't like about the...Good points. The only thing I don't like about the low gas prices is that it will tempt some people into forgetting that we are still facing a very serious supply-demand issue with oil, and that our present state of energy dependance on it is not good for our country. I don't like the idea of gas prices shooting up because it's actually hardest on people <I>not</I> driving Hummers around, but the sad fact is that unless people are uncomfortable, they don't usually seek change. And we're bound to get considerably more uncomfortable.Alexander Wolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03041808057755360625noreply@blogger.com