Could Bush win the popular vote this time?

There's a new theory making the rounds that Kerry could win the majority of electoral votes, and thus the presidency, but lose the popular vote to George Bush. Currently, following the trends of the most dependable polls (as opposed to say Strategic Vision or Rasmussen), Kerry could very well have 316 electoral votes right now. However, most of the national polls have it a tie, or Bush slightly ahead but within the margin of error (and a few with Kerry ahead). I don't think this is accurate. For one, as we have heard, the polls can't reach people with cell phones, meaning that a lot of people, particularly young adults like me, can't be polled. Also, most of the national polls are weighing too much Republican support that doesn't accurately reflect the population. Democrats are already coming out in force, whether their state is red or not. Also, I just find this scenario less likely with a Democrat. Democrats tend to get the most populous states, except for Texas, so the likelihood of them getting less of the popular vote, but enough electoral votes, is a lot less than for a Republican, as we saw in 2000. Finally, I just think if you look at the fundamentals of the race like Bush's approval rating and people's opinions on the state of the country, it points to a Bush loss.

Now, of course, I could hardly stand Bush winning the popular vote. It'd be heartbreaking, and it's be bad for Kerry, the Democrats, and the country. However, a possible silver lining would be that it could lead both parties to finally reform the electoral process. But I believe Kerry will take the popular vote by at least as much as Gore did, and this time, he'll get to be president.

UPDATED: A West Virginia elector might not vote for Bush!