The Bush Agenda

With Bush having won and the Republicans increasing their numners in both houses of Congress, we are sure to see a very conservative agenda on the menu the next two-four years. Bush has already laid out some of his domestic plans, but I will analyze issue by issue here:

Taxes: Bush will certainly push for his tax cuts to be made permanent, and he could very well get that done with this Congress. However, concerns over the deficit may cause some fiscal conservatives like John McCain to stand against it. There's also the possibility of a push for more fundamental tax reform such as a national sales tax. Bush is already talking about a "simpler system." The Republicans may feel this is the best time they've ever had to push for such a thing, but it will be very hard since they themselves are divided on what to do.

The Budget: Speaking of deficits, since Bush is unwilling to raise taxes and wants to cut them more, he will likely start making some cuts to appease deficit hawks in his own party. These cuts will not come from defense of any Republican-backed program, but rather from traditional Democratic/liberal places like the environment, education, etc.

Tort Reform: Bush now has the votes to put spending caps on class action and medical malpractice lawsuits.

Energy: That energy package Bush almost got through? It'll get through now.

Environment: Expect further deregulation and drilling in ANWR.

Federal Marriage Amendment: One wonders if they will try to pass this again. It wasn't incredibly popular and states are handling the issue for religious conservatives as 11 voted to ban gay marriage and civil unions on Tuesday, and Dick Cheney and Bill Frist both said it was a bad idea in retrospect. However, Republicans may find themselves having to actually do something for their conservative base, in which case, it could be good for us because when they don't they'll lose votes.

Flag Burning Amendment: I can definitely see this passing though...

The Patriot Act: This one is tricky. Bush and the right-wingers will be moving to "strengthen it," but moderate Republicans don't like some of the Patriot Act. My guess is we won't get Patriot II, but we won't reform Patriot I either.

Immigration: Bush may push for the immigration reform he proposed in his last State of the Union (maybe the Mars thing too? Nah, probably not that one.). However, he could face stiff opposition from conservatives as many see this as an amnesty program.

Healthcare: Bush probably can get through his health iniative too, though at a cost of 90 billion, again fiscal conservatives may right it like they did with the prescription drug entitlement. However, like with that program, that doesn't mean they can't be strong-armed along.

Social Security: This is the big one that will be sure to set off a national debate about the program. Bush wants to allow young workers to put up to three percent of what is intended for SS into private accounts. However, moderate Republicans may be worried about altering what it considered the "third rail" of politics (touch SS and you die). But again, many will be thinking it is now or never. The big problem is it is unclear how Bush would make up for the $10 trillion dollar gap in payments to retirees, especially with the boomers getting ready to retire. As I said, this is the big one, and it will either go down in flames, or it'll be one of the biggest reforms in recent history.

USSC: Rehnquist is about to leave, and Bush will get to replace him with a conservative judge (though Dems can still try and fillibuster). Since Rehnquist is already a conservative, this doesn't upset the balance, however he is Chief Justice, so Bush will also get to pick the new Chief Justice of the USSC. Antonin Scalia is the obvious choice. This will also set off a national debate and could be hard like reforming SS due to strong opposition from both Democrats and the remaining moderate Republicans. With the possibilty of putting up to two more justices on the USSC and vastly changing the direction of the court for the last 50 years, this will not be easy for Bush. However, Republicans must be thinking it is now or never.

As for foreign policy, who knows? Bush has to find a way to make Iraq work, and even he knows he can't keep requesting billions and billions for it and Afghanistan (as he is about to do again). I'm gonna go ahead and say I think war in Iran, Syria, etc. is unlikely at this point. Even the neo-cons know it can't be done right now, but I'll leave the speculation to others. As for the draft, it just depends on how things go. What is interesting is that Bush is going to have to seriously deal with the Israeli-Palestinian situation (an ignored subject during the campaign) as Arafat will have to be replaced soon.

I'll leave speculation to the cabinet to the media people. Everyone knows several people including Powell, Rumsfeld (though maybe not immediately), and Ashcroft could be on there way out. McCain has said he won't be on his way in though today.

Anyway, I think we are definitely gonna see the Republicans get more of what they want as far as tax cuts, health savings accounts, and tort reform. As to whether they can fundamentally change SS and the USSC they way the want to remain to be seen, as Democrats and moderate Republicans will not let them do it with out a fight. Bush knows he needs to do these things quickly, before Democrats regain seats in the midterms and he becomes a lame duck. Whatever the case, we are in for an interesting number of years and we'll be here to catch it as it is happening.