The Electoral Question

In my previous post, I highlighted the the Democrats apparent electoral deficit problem. Let me go into more detail.

There was pretty much three ways for Kerry to win enough electoral votes to be president in this election. Carry Ohio, carry Florida, or carry the Gore states (plus NH) and pullot out a surprise win in Nevada and some (had its referendum passed) or all of Colorado's electoral votes. Well, none of that happened. And while we did win New Hampshire, we lost Iowa and New Mexico from last time.

First off, I believe New Hampshire is here to stay. It is the last Republican bastion in the Northeast. Why did Bush lose it? Because while it is Republican, the Republicans there are moderates who are liberal on social issues and less extreme on others. They were disturbed by Bush's religious conservatism, his lack of fiscal responsibility, and other extreme views. And with the conservative wing of the Republican party moving into almost total domination, I believe we will be able to keep it on our side for now. I also understand there are more people moving even from neighboring Northeastern states such as Massachusetts ;)

It is certainly disappointing we failed to keep Iowa and New Mexico. However, Bush won both states by only one point. Hardly much of a turnover. I think we underestimated Bush's ability to win these states by drawing rural voters and Hispanics to his side, and we didn't care as much as we should have because we figured we had to win Ohio and/or Florida to win regardless of whether we carried these states again or not. Well, it is obvious that's not a winning strategy. We need all the votes we can get. I think if we just pay appropriate attention to these states, we can take them back.

Bush only won Nevada by two points, a smaller margin of victory than last time. Also, the Democratic senator there, Harry Reid, coasted to re-election with 60 percent of the vote (after winning by only a few hundred votes last time) and will be the new minority leader. On a cautious note, both Bush's narrow win and Reid's large one may or may not be attributed to the Bush admin's Yucca Mountain nuclear waste disposal plan angering many voters (though apparently not enough to vote against Bush). Likewise with Ohio. It's usually a red state, and if we couldn't win it with a 14% unemployment rate mostly due to outsourcing, I'm not sure if it is still much of a swing state. Clinton won it, but he also won Montana, Louisiana, Georgia, Virginia, etc. where the average Democrat, liberal or moderate, have little hope or winning anymore.

Who knows about Florida. Bush increased his margin of victory (he actually won it this time!) to five percentage points and it elected a Republican to Bob Graham's seat. I'm not ready to call it a red state, there's encouraging signs that young Cubans are less Republican than their parents, but it's clear "winning Florida" is not a strategy Democrats should lean their hopes on.

Finally, I do see hope in Colorado. While it was bad for us that the referendum that would have proportioned its electoral votes did not pass, Bush won it by just 5 percentage points, down from last time. And outside of Barack Obama in Illinois, it is the one place we had a Democrat pick-up in the Senate with Ken Salazar. While we aren't there yet, it is clear it has become more Democratic over the last few years. Other than that, I see the other states Bush won to be pretty red for now. Edwards couldn't win us North Carolina, and I don't think Hillary Clinton could win in the South like her husband could either. I'm not trying to be a downer, but I don't see any point in being overly optimistic. Hopeful yes, but it would be foolish to be so to an unrealistic point right now.

This all leads me to conclude that while it is certainly fine for Democrats to try and win Ohio and Florida, we must retain the small but important states of Iowa and New Hampshire. We must also retain New Mexico too and indeed gain in the Southwest, the only place we seem to be doing so. While I am but a simple blogger, I believe this is the best path to presidential victory in four years. Hopefully, the next candidate and campaign will take notice.