Iran Intelligence

Anyone who say this article in today’s Washington Post can be forgiven for thinking "Here we go again."

At this point it’s perfectly reasonably to be suspicious of nearly any intelligence data that’s cited by this administration, considering that a) our intelligence agencies haven’t been very good as of late at figuring out what other countries are up to and b) this administration clearly picks and chooses among the available intelligence to find that which supports their policies, while ignoring the rest and dismissing any clear flaw in the intelligence they do use. In this case we have Colin Powell asserting that Iran is much closer to having nuclear weapons that it can mount on missiles than we’ve suspected.

"According to one official with access to the material, a "walk-in" source approached U.S intelligence earlier this month with more than 1,000 pages purported to be Iranian drawings and technical documents, including a nuclear warhead design and modifications to enable Iranian ballistic missiles to deliver an atomic strike. The official agreed to discuss the information on the condition of anonymity and only because Powell had alluded to it publicly."

However....

"U.S. intelligence officials have been combing the information carefully and with a wary eye, mindful of the mistakes made in trusting intelligence information alleging that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction."

I’m not reassured by that. Even if these intelligence officials are carefully reviewing the information, that’s not to say that officials in the administration won’t simply ignore their conclusions to make whatever case they want out of the intelligence. An odd questions as to Powell’s motives arises from how he chose to speak about it publicly before the information was even vetted. Powell clearly was the most senior administration figure arguing behind the scenes for a slow-down in the rush to war in Iraq; alluding to some questionable intelligence before it can even be vetted is more like a trick we’d see from Rice, or Wolfowitz. Secondly, Powell is on his way out the door soon, and very soon will have only the same stake on the question of Iran that you or I have. So why did he choose to bring this up now?

I can only speculate, and my theories probably aren’t worth even two cents. But Powell is no fool. I strongly suspect that this was no "mis-step", or even a deliberate effort to build a case for war with Iran. Instead I think Powell is simply trying to force the administration into some action regarding Iran, goading them with his "slip" to talk publicly about the issue. I could also ascribe truly machiavellian motives to his actions, in that publicly raising questionable intelligence so that it can be analyzed, critiqued or even discounted, he removes a potential arrow in the quiver of those hawks in the administration that would have liked to use the information, but who would have preferred to present it in a better light, in a manner of their choosing so as to minimize the issue of it’s questionability.

It’s impossible to say. Only Powell and perhaps a trusted deputy or two know why he chose to bring this up in the manner that he did, and it’s pure speculation as to wonder at his motives. But I’d say regardless of his intent, he’s definitely presented the information in such a way as to guarantee it’s thoroughly analyzed before the public.