I'm going to go out on a limb now. I'm predicting that we will not see the privitization of Social Security during Bush's second term, if ever. I'm not saying it won't be a close fight. Conservatives have a disquieting ability to put their own doubts, questions, or even beliefs, behind them when it comes to supporting their Politician-in-Chief. But I think Bush has perhaps bitten off more then he can chew this time. Why do I say that? Articles like this one in the Washington Post outline the difficulties Bush will have in getting Social Security privatization enacted, this time because of opposition from his own party.
Most alarming to White House officials, some congressional Republicans are panning the president's plan -- even before it is unveiled. "Why stir up a political hornet's nest . . . when there is no urgency?" said Rep. Rob Simmons (Conn.), who represents a competitive district. "When does the program go belly up? 2042. I will be dead by then."
Considering that Bush can count on virtually no support from the Democrats with this issue (as even moderate and centrist Democrats are coming out against it) this presents a real problem for him. The issue of course is the essential absurdity of the plan. Even some Republicans are having trouble understanding how this is a crisis (see quote above), or how the massive borrowing necessary to "reform" Social Security can be justified in the face of the current deficit, as Americans are very concerned about the latter and not so much about the former.
So I'm making my bold prediction now that eventually Bush will be forced to back away from this plan, and hopefully will have squandered a good portion of the "political capital" he's been so eager to spend since his re-election.
Monday, January 10, 2005
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3 comments:
There are some Democrats (in the House anyway) that are for it, but some early supporters have since backed away. The Dems can and should be able to use this against Bush and the Republicans, especially if they talk about the things the Krugman article you sent talked about.
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/11/opinion/11krugman.html?ex=1106422382&ei=1&en=4b42d5fafa95349c
I actually don't think this is a clear losing fight that some Democrats think it is for Bush (they have been wrong many times before). Younger workers support private accounts. Maybe they won't when they hear the details, but it's older workers and retirees that fear these reforms the most, and the fact that they vote more than younger people is what Republicans are fearing and Democrats are hoping for. The only reason Bush and his most staunchly supporting backers on this issue are making this such a top priority is because of the potentional long-term payoff of getting younger voters on their side.
Oh I don't think it's clear; I think it's going to very close. But my intuition tells me that Bush will not be able to pull this rabbit out of the hat. Of course my intituation also led me to predict that Kerry would win, so perhaps I should get out of the prediction business. I just think that this Republican opposition to the plan, though many of them can be won over, signals that the pieces are not in place to get any sort of plan through Congress. And even the moderate voices calling for reform can't bring themselves to support the Bush plan. Additionally, I think the distraction that is the Iraq war is leading many people to wonder why Bush is so focused on this now. Bush seems to have a knack for avoiding the downside of politics, but I have a feeling the Iraq war is going to color the rest of his time in office.
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