In what is probably maddening to many Democrats, and scary to many Republicans, two new Ipsos-Public Affairs polls suggest most Americans already want Democrats to retake Congress and the Presidency. When asked if the election for Congress were held today, would Americans want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress, 51% (interesting number there) lean towards the Democrats. When asked if the election for president were held today, would they vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, a 48%-44% plurality lean more towards a Democrat than a Republican.
What now? Does this suggest a radical change in the American electorate in just two months after the election?
No, rather, it suggests that Republicans increased their numbers in Congress through partisan redistricting and certain regional political realities (the retirement of the Democrats in the South and their replacement by Republicans do to political restructuring) and not because of some conservative "mandate" from the populace. Similiarly, in regards to the presidency, it suggests that most voters weren't rejecting the policies and ideals of Democrats so much as they were rejecting the particular candidate they chose to run. While this does not mean Democrats simply need to wait for things to come around, it is clear a complete overhaul of ideals and policies is not required. Americans are already on our side, at least more than they are on the side of Republicans.
What we need to do in these next elections is to make sure they know that.
Wednesday, January 05, 2005
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2 comments:
I think this definitely shows that Republicans have power disproportionate to the approval that they currently have in the American public. They are at the peak of their power; one wonders when the decline will begin.
I believe the reversal of the trend will start almost immediately. As I've pointed out, it has already on the state level. And again, redistricting and a slew of Democratic retirements in the South (the only *growing* Republican region) were the main reasons they added to their numbers this year. Democrats ousted more Republican incumbents in the House than Republicans ousted Dems, and Democrats took Repub Senate seats in at least Colorado and Illinois, as well as garnering landslide victories in places like Nevada, Indiana, and Arkansas.
I do not believe, simply because the task is too great and again more Democrats are up for re-election, the Democrats will take either the House or Senate in 2006, but I am certain we will see a narrowing of the gap.
The presidency, of course, is simply unpredictable.
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