In another rebuke of "moral values" being the bigger factor in partisan divide, a "Politics and Values" survey by the Pew Research Center has found that differences in "national security" views are more linked with partisan affiliation than ever before:
"Significantly, the values study found little change in the public's overall views on basic foreign policy attitudes, even as Republicans and Democrats have grown further apart. A modest majority of all Americans (55%) said in December 2004 that good diplomacy, not military strength, is the best way to ensure peace. That was the same number who held that view in 1999 and virtually the same as in 1996 (53%).
However, an increasing number of Republicans subscribe to the view that military strength – rather than effective diplomacy -- is the best way to ensure peace. The percentage endorsing diplomacy as the better option dropped from 46% in 1999 to 32% in 2004.
The movement among Democrats – in the opposite direction – has been just as dramatic. In the 1990s, roughly 60% of Democrats expressed the view that good diplomacy was the best way to ensure peace; that number rose to 76% in 2004.
...Roughly two-thirds of Bush voters said that using overwhelming force is the best way to defeat global terrorism. An even larger percentage of Kerry voters said that relying too much on military force creates hatred that leads to more terrorism.
Bush and Kerry voters also expressed starkly different views about the U.S. role in world affairs. While a majority of Bush voters endorsed an activist foreign policy, just as many Kerry voters instead agreed with the statement: 'We should pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems here at home.'"
This really isn't surprising if you just talk to the average Democrat or Republican nowadays. However, while the Republicans have had the image of being more "hawish" for awhile, they have historically been the more isolationist of the two parties. So there's an interesting switch going on here with Democrats favoring less action abroad and Republicans favoring more.
Another not-so-surprising but substantial shift is on the parties' views of government:
"As recently as 1999, there were gaps of about 20 percentage points between the parties...Those differences have now narrowed or vanished, and the change has been largely driven by growing pro-government sentiment among Republicans. This no doubt has much to do with the fact Republicans now control both the White House and Congress. Even so, the GOP's increasing comfort with government represents a major shift from the days of the Republican revolution. Politicians have long had a negative image with the public. Two-thirds of Americans (66%) said in the December 2004 survey that elected officials in Washington lose touch with people pretty quickly, and 63% felt that elected officials generally 'don't care what people like me think.' These numbers actually represent modest improvement since the mid-1990s. Reflecting their parties' contrasting political fortunes over the past decade, Republicans have become much less critical of Washington politicians, while Democrats have become somewhat more negative. In July 1994, 73% of Republicans said that elected officials tend to lose touch quickly; ten years later, 55% felt this way. By comparison, the number of Democrats taking this position grew from 66% in July 1994 to 72% last year."
Bush is ushering in an era of "big government" Republicans.
The rest of the survey found that the party divide on issues such as religion, homosexuality, immigration, race and so forth haven't changed. And in some good news, the gap between Democrats and Republicans on helping the poor and protecting the environment has closed somewhat (though I would say there are vastly different views on actual policy in these areas).
In the end, it is clear that the current partisan and political divide is based in different views on the "war on terror," where the parties not only have completely different views (that are getting starker) but assign a different amount of importance to the issue. The key for electoral victory for Republicans will be solidifying this gap, and for Democrats closing it.
Thursday, February 17, 2005
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