Iraq: New Training Ground for Terrorists

An article in today's NY Times discusses a classified CIA report concerning the use of Iraq as a training going for Islamic militants. In short:

"A new classified assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency says Iraq may prove to be an even more effective training ground for Islamic extremists than Afghanistan was in Al Qaeda's early days, because it is serving as a real-world laboratory for urban combat.

The officials said the report spelled out how the urban nature of the war in Iraq was helping combatants learn how to carry out assassinations, kidnappings, car bombings and other kinds of attacks that were never a staple of the fighting in Afghanistan during the anti-Soviet campaigns of the 1980's."

Such an assessment will play a key roll in the larger debate about whether America is indeed safer from terrorist attack as a result of the invasion of Iraq. At issue of course is the claim by many on the right that America is safer as a result of militants focusing their attacks on American soldiers in Iraq, instead of civilians here or elsewhere in the world:

"The assessment said the central role played by Iraq meant that, for now, most potential terrorists were likely to focus their energies on attacking American forces there, rather than carrying out attacks elsewhere, the officials said. But the officials said Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other countries would soon have to contend with militants who leave Iraq equipped with considerable experience and training."

I've discussed this issue before in a longer post, as to whether America is in fact "safer" as a result of the invasion. Many on the right put forth the argument above, that because militants and terrorists are drawn to attack our soldiers in Iraq, they are expending less effort on classic terrorist attacks elsewhere in the world (the "honeypot" theory, as I like to refer to it.) The most important question is whether there would be as many terrorist attacks against the United States period, world-wide, if the Iraq invasion had never occured. Since 9/11 there have been no significant attacks on Americans world-wide, though there have been significant attacks on American allies. Does the war in Iraq have anything to do with that? Any positive answer to this question must of course be balanced by the knowledge that the Iraq war has almost certainly created more militants then would have existed without it, as ordinary Muslim me take up the call to jihad, inflamed by the invasion and occupation of Iraq. Can the invasion in fact be seen as decreasing American security at home and abroad? Certainly yes, if we have motivated more men to become militants, given them a theater in which they may learn and practice their skills, then allow them to escape to other countries to plan attacks against their own governments and us.

It's hard to have a solid answer to any of these questions. However, it's easy to say that the purpose of the invasion of Iraq, at least as proffered by the neo-cons in the administration, was greater security for us at home and abroad, and it's hard to see how over two years after the invasion we have any of that.