More than two years after the fall of Saddam Hussein, Sunni Arabs belatedly joined in force to build a new Iraq, walking to polls by the hundreds of thousands Thursday for national elections that drew a robust turnout from across the country's sectarian and ethnic divides.
The Sunni outpouring was a long hoped-for victory for the Bush administration, concluding a U.S.-planned timeline aimed at establishing a government that will hold together after U.S. troops withdraw. An overwhelming number of Sunnis made clear, however, that they were drawn to the polls by their dislike of the U.S. occupation and Iraq's U.S.-supported, Shiite-led transitional government.
Still, it's best to be wary of reading too much into these elections:
In Baghdad for election day, Republican Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.) said the vote provided a "second chance," but he also warned that the successful day should not be interpreted as a solution to Iraq's problems. "Really, in many ways, they're just beginning," he said in an interview with NBC's "Today" show.
Anthony H. Cordesman, a Persian Gulf military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agreed. He said the vote is not the long-awaited turning point but rather a trigger for launching a new political process next year that will include amending a constitution. That, he said, will better determine whether Iraq has a chance of emerging out of turmoil.
One looming danger is that the most dedicated wings of the insurgency, the foreign fighters and Islamic extremists, may only become more determined or vicious. "The steady grind of this guerrilla war is going to go on. The elections are not relevant to it, and that's what is going to matter to the American people," warned Juan R.I. Cole, an Iraq expert at the University of Michigan.
And yet, the elections are nothing but a positive development. The final outcome in Iraq is still much in doubt, but any reason for hope is welcome.
Update: Here's a piece from today's NY Times with more on Sunni attitudes towards the elections.
2 comments:
I'd call it cautious, all right. Basically all that this means is that there is a possibility for the actual process to happen whereby a real government comes in to being. Even if that government does come into being, it may still fail when we pull out.
Honestly I don't think this changes much. It's still a question of whether Iraq can become stable and strong enough by the time we pull out. This is a step in the right direction, but can they get there fast enough?
I think caution definitely is warranted. The last two "elections" in Iraq were rigged by the Bush Administration. There's no reason to think that this one will be any different.
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