Thursday, January 12, 2006

Insurgents vs. Al Qaeda

The NY Times reports today that some Iraqi insurgents aren't seeing eye to eye with the members of Al Qaeda in their midst:

Across from the Iraqis stood the men from Al Qaeda, mostly Arabs from outside Iraq. Some of them wore suicide belts. The men from the Islamic Army accused the Qaeda fighters of murdering their comrades.

"Al Qaeda killed two people from our group," said an Islamic Army fighter who uses the nom de guerre Abu Lil and who claimed that he attended the meeting. "They repeatedly kill our people."

The encounter ended angrily. A few days later, the insurgents said, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and the Islamic Army fought a bloody battle on the outskirts of town.

The battle, which the insurgents said was fought on Oct. 23, was one of several clashes between Al Qaeda and local Iraqi guerrilla groups that have broken out in recent months across the Sunni Triangle.


It is only a good thing if the insurgents want to turn on Al Qaeda in Iraq. It is widely believe that Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, Zarqawi's men, are largely responsible for the horrific suicide bombings that have killed so many Iraqi civilians. The article doesn't speculate on how wide this rift is or how many in the insurgency are turning on Al Qaeda, because of course we don't really know. But it's clear that at least in the interim, as the Sunnis seek to become more politically involved, there is less and less need for the drastic tactics of Al Qaeda, which does not share the same goals as the largely Sunni insurgency. This shift says nothing about whether the insurgency will come to an end anytime soon, but any reduction of the foothold Al Qaeda has in Iraq is a good thing. And there's really little doubt that in a fight between Sunni insurgents and Al Qaeda, the insurgents would win. Al Qaeda, as far as we know at least, consists mostly of Arabs from other countries who are no doubt out of place in Iraq, and they are far outnumbered by the insurgents by any estimation.

At the same time, some in the insurgency apparently are more willing to talk to us.

U.S. officials have been talking with local Iraqi insurgent leaders to exploit a rift between homegrown insurgents and radical groups such as Al Qaeda, The New York Times reported on Saturday.

Citing a Western diplomat, an Iraqi political leader and an Iraqi insurgent leader, the Times said that the talks were also aimed at drawing the local leaders into the political process.

According to interviews with insurgents and both U.S. and Iraqi officials, clashes between Iraqi groups and al Qaeda have broken out in several cities across the Sunni Triangle and they appear to have intensified in recent months, the Times said.


This is along the lines of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend...even if he's also my enemy." Reports of "talks" with Iraqi insurgents filter now and again. Given the disparate nature of the insurgency, it's all but impossible for Joe Schmo sitting here at his computer back home(or even Joe Schmo sitting at his computer in the Green Zone) to know exactly who we're talking to and how influential they are in the insurgency. But as the Sunnis have greater incentive to participate in the political process and duke it out with Al Qaeda, they also have some greater incentive to talk to us. I don't imagine our troops and the insurgents will be playing soccer games against each other anytime soon, but if even a small number of insurgents can be persuaded to give up the fight-at least temporarily-then some good has come of it.

Of course, whether or not Iraq ends up in civilian war hinges on pretty much nothing I've discussed here, but we'll take what we can get.

1 comment:

adam said...

On the contrary, I believe soccer is the answer here.