Senate Round-Up

Thirty-three of the U.S. Senate's 100 seats will be up for election this November, and below I have listed ones that are actually competitive or otherwise interesting for your enjoyment:

Pennsylvania: If there's any seat that looks certain to be a Democratic pick-up, it's Rick Santorum's. Challenger Bob Casey Jr. has hovered above 50% consistently in polls for months now and things don't seem to be getting better for Santorum.

Montana: Democrats seem to have found extremely competitive challengers for Conrad Burns, with one, State Auditor John Morrison leading 50% and State Senate John Tester pulling even. Though usually a solid red state in presidential races, Montana voters elected a now extremely popular Democratic governor and legislature in 2004.

Missouri: A Rasmussen poll released today shows Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill leading Republican Senator Jim Talent 43% to 40% in a head-to-head matchup. Missouri has trended Republican in recent years, but it's not out of reach for Democrats and they seem to have found a great candidate here.

Ohio: This one is hard to tell. Recent polls have shifted back favor of incumbent Republican Mike Dewine, but nonetheless Democratic Congressman Sherrod Brown is making it competitive and it could (and probably will) easily swing back in forth in the coming months. This one is going to be close.

Rhode Island: A recent poll has shown Democratic Secretary of State Matt Brown within striking distance of incumbent Lincoln Chaffee, but his incumbency still gives him the edge. However, Chafee also faces a primary challenge from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. A Laffey upset in the Republican primary would very likely mean a victory for the Democrats in the general election. Laffey trails Brown by 24 points.

Nevada: The competitiveness of this race will depend on who wins the Democratic primary. Two potential candidates are Jack Carter, son of the ex-President, and Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman. Carter trails Republican incumbent John Ensign, but Goodman polls very close to Ensign and within the margin of error. Also, both Al Gore and John Kerry came very close to winning Nevada in their respective presidential races and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid won re-election in 2004 with 60% of the vote. However, Republican incumbent John Kyl looks pretty safe in neighboring Arizona.

Tennessee: Bill Frist is retiring so it's an open race, and though Rep. Harold Ford is probably the best challenger the Democrats could field he still trails three potential Republican challengers. Unless there's a major change from now until November, I don't see this as competitive right now.

West Virginia: Thankfully, Robert Byrd seems to be coasting to a ninth term in office. He is leading all potential challengers with about 60%.

Florida: Given that his opponent is Katherine Harris, Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson appears to be poised to win whereas he could be in trouble with any other Republican. He is currently leading Harris by about 10 points.

Maryland: Likely candidate Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin leads Lt. Governor Michael Steele by fourteen points in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Paul Sarbanes in this very blue state.

Minnesota: The race looked more competitive back in December, when Mark Dayton, the Democratic incumbent, decided not to stand for reelection. However, support for Democrat Ford Bell has jumped 7 points in a match-up with Republican Mark Kennedy. He now leads Kennedy 43% to 40%. Democrat Amy Klobuchar also gained some ground. She now leads Kennedy 45% to 42%. Mark Kennedy seems to be a strong Republican challenger, but this is Minnesota so a Democrat is favored to win. Same with New Jersey, where newly appointed Democratic Senator Menendez just needs to increase his name ID.

Connecticut: I put this on here not because there's any chance a Republican might pick up this seat, but because Bush-supporting incumbent Joe Lieberman has a Democratic primary challenge in Ned Lamont. The race has just begun so no one knows how much of a chance Ned has of beating Lieberman, however, it is interesting to note that Lieberman's high approval in the state largely comes from Republicans, or at least as much as it does Democrats. Still, Lieberman is favored due to the incumbency and name id factor, but his pro-war stance and attacks on fellow Democrats could allow for Ned to give him a serious run for his money. One thing is for sure, Joe will be a good Democrat from now at least until November.

As things stand right now, Democratic seats look pretty safe and there are at least a handful of potential Democratic pick-ups. We need 6 seats to gain a majority, and right now I see three wins and three toss-ups which would at least decrease our deficit by half (though things could change in either direction). Though House prospects may look better, that would put us in good position to take back the Senate in 2008 if it doesn't happen this year.