We've all heard people from both sides of the political spectrum talking about the economy, and you get two completely different pictures. On the one hand, the Republicans are talking about the growth of the economy and the stock market. Bush also tells us he's created millions of new jobs. "The truth," said Bush, "is that since August 2003, America has added almost five million new jobs."
On the other hand, Democrats talk about a sluggish economy, lack of jobs and the low pay of many existing jobs. So there's some discrepancy there. Most people evidently have not seen the economy helping them any and have a more pessimistic outlook than Bush would like.
The trouble for Republicans is that the American people believe they're still in
a recession. A new poll by the American Research Group finds that a whopping 58
percent of voters disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy while only 36
percent approve. (The figures are virtually identical to those for his overall
job approval rating, which lists 57 percent disapproval and 37 percent
approval.)
Reflecting a polarized nation in which Democrats and
Republicans work, live and worship side by side while apparently living in
separate realities, most liberals disapprove and most conservatives approve of
Bush's economic stewardship. But the GOP has good cause for concern as this
fall's midterm elections draw closer: the self-identified Independents who have
determined the outcome of recent races disapprove, 66 to 28. Even more
worrisome, most voters--by a margin of 47 to 36--think the economy is getting
worse. Americans haven't been as pessimistic about the American Dream in years.
While perception is not always reality, if more than half the people say they saw something, then you know they saw something (unless it's at a magic show, but most people aren't falling for Bush's tricks anymore). Rall goes on to explain why people might think like this.
"The truth," said Bush, "is that since August 2003, America has added almost five million new jobs."
Sounds great, but it depends on what your definition of "added" is. According to the Economic Policy Institute, the U.S. economy must generate 150,000 jobs every month in order for the unemployment rate to stay the same. Because the total number of workers rises with population growth, a president who creates fewer than 1.8 million new jobs each year presides over rising unemployment.
Just to stay even, then, Bush would have had to create 4.65 million jobs between August 2003 and the present. By his own admission, he only has 350,000 net new jobs to show for a workforce of 143.6 million people--a net increase of less than one quarter of one percent. No wonder Bush isn't feeling much love.
Moreover, some 1.9 million jobs--net jobs--vanished before August 2003, during the first two and a half years of Bush's first term. That wasn't all his fault. He came into power at the start of the dot-com bust. Nevertheless, Bush's tax cuts didn't help. Those lost jobs never came back. The people who lost them are still unemployed, underemployed or have been statistically transformed into "unpersons," the "discouraged job seekers" no one bothers to count.
So, really simply, Bush's economy has created just enough jobs to keep unemployment the same and produced a surplus of 350,000 since August 2003. But before that, 1.9 million jobs disappeared. So he's only reduced that pre-existing population of unemployed from 1.9 to 1.55 million.
I don't know how many people aren't being counted as unemployed because they're no longer seeking work, but I do know that a significant portion of working Americans are under-employed and that the numbers of unemployed may not continue to rise as a percentile, but as an actual number keep right on going up.
Rall also argues against the idea that the macro-economy is really doing that well.
Can the economy boom without benefiting individuals? Economists often ask themselves that question, but that's not what most Americans believe is going on. When they look beyond their personal financial situations, they see a dismal macroeconomic reality reflected in 401(k)s that have yet to recover from their post-dot-com losses. The Bush Administration has added $2.7 trillion to our national debt. Not only do its expensive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have no end in sight, now they're talking about nuking Iran. The U.S., they know, is broke and getting broker.
6 comments:
I like the last line of the article about how Republicans saying how great the economy is would be the most surefire way for them to show how out of touch they are...
Another issue: according to the Economic Policy Institute, almost all of the job growth under the Bush administration is due to increased federal spending. So the new jobs aren't real jobs -- they are jobs financed by debt. That's not economic growth; it's an economic shell game.
You know, that's an awesome point that I had completely forgotten. Thanks for bringing that up.
I agree with Adam. I think Republicans are beginning to realize that the growth which has so greatly benefitted them and their "real" constituents (industry and the wealthy) feels like the rest of us to be no growth at all. You can tell that they've been out of touch for so long because they've dared to go on TV touting this new economy, not realizing that there are so many people who feel that they aren't benefitting that merely repeating talking points on TV shows isn't going to do the trick this time. The state of the economy is a burden the GOP must bear now; as it is a direct result of their policies, this is exceedingly just.
Whoa, if that's true about the job growth mainly coming from federal spending that's not only a blow to the administration and the Republican Party, but to conservative ideas themselves.
I'm sure Bush and his party wonder why people are expressing such negative views about the economy. But they can't see the answer because to them it's not possible that the reason is because the economy is actually doing poorly.
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