Hold on to your bread...

There's good news and there's bad news. As usual, the good news isn't anywhere near as good as the bad news is bad. America's breadbasket is experiencing a drought the likes of which hasn't been seen in decades, resulting in lower crop yields than we have seen in decades.

Farmers in South Texas are enduring "massive" losses from crops planted without irrigation like cotton, sorghum and some corn, said Travis Miller, a drought specialist with Texas Cooperative Extension.

"The dryland crops are toast," he said. "It's a desert."

About half of 500,000 acres of planted cotton in six counties surrounding Corpus Christi, which had its second driest January to April since 1887, are expected to fail, South Texas Cotton and Grain Association executive director Jeff Nunley said.

[...]Also hit hard has been the state's wheat crop. About 74 percent of the state's crop was rated poor, and the estimated harvest of 35 million wheat bushels in a report released Friday would be the worst since 1971. That year, 31.4 million bushels were harvested. Last year, about 96 million bushels were produced.

In a typical year, about half of all the wheat planted will be harvested. This year about one-third of the crop will be harvested.

The situation is not limited to Texas, as this report from Oklahoma shows.

This spring, Oklahoma will see its worst wheat harvest in 50 years, experts predict, because of drought, wild fires, high winds, hailstorms, insects and frost damage. With the harvest under way in some parts of the state, about 68 million bushels are expected -- less than half the yearly average since 2001.

With the price of wheat, at harvest, estimated at $4.75 a bushel, farmers could lose $125 million in income. The average price since 2001 is $3.20.

But that's not the whole story. When farm dollars circulated in rural communities are counted, this year's short crop could bring a $314 million loss to the state, said Oklahoma

State University economist Kim Anderson. That's based on research showing that every $1 in farm income produces $2.51 for Oklahoma's economy.

Already, farm towns such as Kingfisher, Altus or Frederick are hurting. Some farmers aren't buying new tractors or equipment. Repair jobs are being put off. Grain elevator operators are laying off workers. Vacations are being canceled.

Some producers might even lose their farms.

At least for Texas, recent rains have improved the situation.

The state had its warmest April on record at an average of 71 degrees, which is 5.9 degrees above the normal of 65.1. Texas got 6.01 inches of rain in the first four months of 2006, down 15 percent from a normal average of 6.88 inches. North of Interstate 10 from Junction through San Antonio and eastward to Louisiana had average to above average rain for April and May, Murphy said.

"Big picture, things are getting a lot better," Murphy said.

That also holds for land concerns. Range and pasture conditions have improved substantially since January when 90 percent of those lands were rated poor to very poor. A May 7 report by the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service shows that number has dropped to 52 percent.

Let's not ignore that little remark about it being the "warmest April on record". The drought is related to this warmth, no doubt about it, and plants need a solid spell of cold, then moderate, then hot temperatures to grow well. That's the way they evolved and we've developed them. Any time that cycle gets out of wack, there's going to be problems. Given that there's a global drought on, one might be inclined to believe it's related to global warming (the linked article is a little old, but still relevant).

From the latter article:

The percentage of Earth's land area stricken by serious drought more than doubled from the 1970s to the early 2000s, according to a new analysis by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Widespread drying occurred over much of Europe and Asia, Canada, western and southern Africa, and eastern Australia. Rising global temperatures appear to be a major factor, says NCAR's Aiguo Dai, lead author of the study.

And from the former:

WICHITA, Kan. -- A global drought in major wheat-producing countries coupled with the lowest world grain stocks in a quarter century are fueling rising wheat prices amid predictions of shortages, farm economists said.

"It has been a steady climb," Mike Woolverton, a grain marketing economist at Kansas State University said Thursday, adding that he expects prices to continue rising.

Among the latest indicators is a 10-day forecast for the Great Plains showing hot and dry weather, he said.

Wheat prices have surged to well over $5 a bushel on major commodity exchanges since the Agricultural Statistics Service released its forecast last week for the nation's winter wheat crop, down 12 percent to 1.32 billion bushels.

Hard red winter wheat, the premier wheat used to make bread, is forecast to be down 23 percent.

[...]Another indication of a worsening global drought came this week in a report from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization indicating nearly two-thirds of the winter wheat crop in western and northern China has been wiped out by a prolonged drought.

Some other areas have experienced a 40 percent to 50 percent cut in winter wheat harvest.

"There is this band around the world where wheat is produced that is affected by this drought," Woolverton said, citing droughts in Russia, Ukraine, India and east Africa, among other countries.

The Agriculture Department last week forecast global wheat production to be down 3 percent.

The agency predicted lower exports for Russia and Ukraine would be partially offset by increased exports for Argentina, Australia and Canada.

But the agency noted the world's wheat stocks are at the lowest level they have been in the past 25 years.

"The stage is set for real high wheat prices," Woolverton said.

Now that's scary stuff. If global warming is touching the world's food supplies (as it was predicted to), we're going to have to make some major adaptations. The debate over why global warming is irrelevant in this case; even if you believe it's not because of human activity, it is happening and is a very real threat. I don't know anything about how we'd safeguard our food supplies, but we better start making sure we can pretty soon.