So wait, what happens then? That's the date of the runoff election in California for the corrupt Duke Cunningham's House seat. As you may know, Democrat Francine Busby got a plurality in the special election last month, but not the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. She will now face Republican Bilbray. A recent LRP poll has Busby leading 47-40 percent, but it will likely go down to the wire.
What's really interesting about this race is that it is a true bellweather. A Democratic win here will give us an indication of how well the Democrats may do in other House races in November. Now I know some of you are saying "It's California, big whoop if a Democrat wins there," but remember this is a Congressional race, not a statewide one, and CA-50 is a heavily Republican district where Republican registration is nearly 2-1 over Democratic, but where independents are now breaking for Busby in droves. Busby only got about a third of the vote when she went up against Cunningham in 2004, and for her to get 43% in this special election is astounding and a testament to how much the political climate has changed.
Though a narrow loss would not be devastating or something, the fact is that this is the kind of seat - along with TX-22 (Delay's seat) and WY-At Large (in which the Democrat is only 4 points down in a state Bush won with 66% of the vote) - we have to be able to win in order to take back and keep a majority in the House of Representatives. All the recent polls show the groundwork is there for a change, but the outcome of this race will give us our first indication or whether this year is truly our time or not.
3 comments:
Despite what the polls have said, I'm still surprised at the strength of the support for the Democratic candidate in this district. The way politics has been polarized for the past decade or more, it's not the kind of thing I would ever expect to see, and I'd be blown away if Busby wins.
Here's an interesting article that follows up on that theme:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/21/washington/21house.html
It's amazing to me. Still, they are right in saying there's 6 months to go and quite a bit can happen.
If Dems win, will we see big move to redistrict?
Post a Comment