Thursday, October 11, 2007

Do the Math

An article in the DMN highlights a new report out from the Irving PD on arrest rates in the city. The article title is "Irving Illegal Immigrant's Charges Mostly Misdemeanors" but the real key is not what they're being arrested for or charged with, but the percentage of Hispanics and illegals being arrested in proportion to all other arrests:

Police Department spokesman David Tull said 14,000 people were arrested in Irving during the same time, but only 1,638 of them were flagged by federal officials for illegal immigration violations.

Did he not calculate the percentages before bringing that up? Ok, 1,638 out of 14,000 is 11.7% of arrests. The question is, how much of Irving's population is illegal? According to the last census, Hispanics of any race make up just over 30% of the population. If all races get arrested at the same rate (assuming they all commit crimes at the same rate), Hispanic arrests should make up 30% of arrests. But if that's true, and 11.7% are illegals, that means fully a third of Irving's Hispanics are illegal! But illegal immigrants of all races make up only 4% of the American population. That means they should, based on equal policing, make up 4% of arrests (unless you buy the argument that they commit crimes in higher proportion). We know, however, that illegals try to avoid any police scrutiny and are very paranoid about having the police called on them and will do anything to avoid it.

And this:

More than 63 percent of the 3,901 criminal charges filed against the 1,638 illegal immigrants were listed as misdemeanors, including outstanding traffic tickets, outstanding warrants, assault, theft, criminal mischief and prostitution.

Is that the same proportion as non-Hispanic arrests? Do most non-Hispanics go to jail for those same charges? And lastly:

Another 16 percent were arrested on suspicion of DWI or public intoxication offenses, while almost 12 percent of the charges filed were listed as driving without a license or driving with a suspended or invalid driver's license.

12% arrested for driving without a license, but on what pretext were they pulled over?

If City of Irving officials were hoping this report would tamp down suspicions about racial profiling in the city, they're mistaken. Far from answering questions, this report will only cause more to be asked.

UPDATE: I don't have any time for in-depth analysis for any of these, but here are some links you might be interested in. First, this DMN story about anti-immigration proponents demonstrating how stupid they are. And this story in the Dallas Observer about how DHS crackdowns are having the-entirely predictable-effect of depriving businesses of laborers they need.

UPDATE II: And now, CNN is paying attention.


Anonymous said...

They are not targeting Mexicans. According to the Mayor, whenever someone comes in contact with police, they are asked to identify themselves. Nothing wrong with that, as most police do that. Get stopped and you are asked for license and registration. If they canoot supply ID, they're taken in. I heard this is Texas law. So whats the problem?? If they are legal or American citizens, then they have nothing to fear. If you are an illegal law-breaker, then be scared. Its their own fault for coming here illegally. GO TEXAS !! Police departments all over the country should be following Irvings lead. Keep up the good work boys

Xanthippas said...

According to the Mayor, whenever someone comes in contact with police, they are asked to identify themselves. Nothing wrong with that, as most police do that.

Unless of course they pull you over because you're Hispanic. Which I suspect you wouldn't have a problem with.