The New Target: Iran

Seymour Hersh has a new article in the New Yorker about the Bush administration's preparations for a strike against Iran, and boy is it a doozy. The debate over whether or not to attack Iran is unresolved in the administration, but it's clear that there are hawks in the administration who are chomping at the bit to attack. But the real change Hersh is reporting has been in the attitude of those hawks, who initially were motivated mostly by Iran's efforts to acquire nuclear weapons and now appear to be motivated to hit Iran in an effort to "fix" what's gone wrong in Iraq:

The President’s position, and its corollary—that, if many of America’s problems in Iraq are the responsibility of Tehran, then the solution to them is to confront the Iranians—have taken firm hold in the Administration. This summer, the White House, pushed by the office of Vice-President Dick Cheney, requested that the Joint Chiefs of Staff redraw long-standing plans for a possible attack on Iran, according to former officials and government consultants. The focus of the plans had been a broad bombing attack, with targets including Iran’s known and suspected nuclear facilities and other military and infrastructure sites. Now the emphasis is on “surgical” strikes on Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities in Tehran and elsewhere, which, the Administration claims, have been the source of attacks on Americans in Iraq. What had been presented primarily as a counter-proliferation mission has been reconceived as counterterrorism.

The shift in targeting reflects three developments. First, the President and his senior advisers have concluded that their campaign to convince the American public that Iran poses an imminent nuclear threat has failed (unlike a similar campaign before the Iraq war), and that as a result there is not enough popular support for a major bombing campaign. The second development is that the White House has come to terms, in private, with the general consensus of the American intelligence community that Iran is at least five years away from obtaining a bomb. And, finally, there has been a growing recognition in Washington and throughout the Middle East that Iran is emerging as the geopolitical winner of the war in Iraq.

Whereas before it appeared supposed Iranian provocations in Iraq were an excuse to hit Iran's nuclear abilities, it now appears that the provocations alone are reason enough and the attacks will be conducted in accordance with that goal:

“Cheney’s option is now for a fast in and out—for surgical strikes,” the former senior American intelligence official told me. The Joint Chiefs have turned to the Navy, he said, which had been chafing over its role in the Air Force-dominated air war in Iraq. “The Navy’s planes, ships, and cruise missiles are in place in the Gulf and operating daily. They’ve got everything they need—even AWACS are in place and the targets in Iran have been programmed. The Navy is flying FA-18 missions every day in the Gulf.” There are also plans to hit Iran’s anti-aircraft surface-to-air missile sites. “We’ve got to get a path in and a path out,” the former official said.

The purpose being to punish Iran for it's meddling in Iraq. Meddling that, as the article and other independent reports make clear, the Bush administration takes as an article of faith because they cannot prove it even to themselves.

It is not at all certain that our military will attack Iran. Forces in the administration are working for it, and forces in the administration are working against it. But it's clear that public opinion, international pressure, and actual facts will not deter President Bush from striking Iran if he so decides. And with the lowering of bar from nuclear ambitions to provocations in Iraq, that seems more likely every day.