Friday, February 15, 2008

Texas Polls

Finally, we get some numbers on Obama and Clinton in Texas. Here's Karl-Thomas Musselman at Burnt Orange Report with the goods (the new numbers are followed by the IVR poll numbers from two weeks ago in parenthesis):


Hillary Clinton: 49 (48)
Barack Obama: 41 (38)
Undecided: 8 (10)


John McCain: 45 (43)
Mike Huckabee: 41 (33)
Undecided: 5 (13)

And now for the interesting sub-groups and my analysis. It's here that we find something very surprising!

Even though Clinton leads by 8 points in polling statewide, based upon the following sub-samples, Obama would still come out with a delegate lead.

Read the explanation that follows if you really want to understand how that happens, but the fact remains that though Clinton leads by 8% points (a lead that will, if Obama holds true to form, dwindle over the next couple of weeks) Obama is poised to deny Clinton the resounding victory she needs in Texas.

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