Sunday, September 07, 2008

Senate Outlook 2008

Here's where the latest Rasmussen Reports polls show each race is at right now (in order of most favored to Democratic challengers - at the moment - to least favored):

Virginia - Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Jim Gilmore by a whopping 26 points

Alaska - Democrat Mark Begich leads Sen. Ted Stevens by a 50% to 37% margin

New Hampshire - Democrat Jeanne Shaheen leads Sen. John Snunu by a 51% to 40% margin

New Mexico - Democratic Rep. Tom Udall leads Rep. Steve Pearce by a 51% to 41% margin

Colorado - Democratic Rep. Mark Udall leads Republican Bob Schaffer by a 47% to 41% margin

Minnesota - Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Al Franken are tied at 45% each

Mississippi - Republican Sen. Roger Wicker leads Ronnie Musgrove by a 47% to 42% margin

Georgia - Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss leads Jim Martin by a 48% to 43% margin

Oregon - Republican Sen. Gordon Smith leads Jeff Merkley by a 47% to 39% margin

Texas - Republican Sen. John Cornyn leads Rick Noriega by a 48% to 37% margin

Kentucky - Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell leads Bruce Lunsford by a 50% to 38% margin

North Carolina - Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole leads Kay Hagan by a 53% to 41% margin

Maine - Republican Sen. Susan Collins leads Rep Tom Allen by a 53% to 38% margin

Kansas - Republican Sen. Pat Roberts leads Jim Slattery by a 55% to 36% margin

- Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, the only Dem incumbent once thought endangered, now leads John Kennedy by a 53% to 37% margin

-So Democratic challengers lead in 5 races, are tied in one, and are within striking distance in a few others. No Democratic incumbents are in trouble. A net gain is as certain as it could be, it's more a question of how much. Not counting Sen. Joe Lieberman (who will likely be kicked out of the caucus after the elections), Dems need to gain 10 seats to have a filibuster-proof majority of 60 in the Senate. That's a tall order, but they'll be closer for sure.

No comments: