Wednesday, November 05, 2008

On those predictions...

We are still waiting on some results, but I can review a few of my predictions.

-A blowout! Obama did better than my electoral map and especially in my estimate of the popular vote. It looks like he has 364 electoral votes with his upset in Indiana (who would have thought that would turn but not Missouri, which no presidential race winner has won without but once in the last century?). That is the biggest electoral college victory since Bill Clinton in 1996. He won in every region by picking up all the Kerry states (by larger margins), leveling McCain in Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, finally winning Ohio and Florida for the Dems, and winning states Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina which haven't been won by a Dem since LBJ or Carter. He also got a lot closer in the states that went for McCain than Kerry did four years ago. So much for McCain's Pennsylvania firewall!

Even better, Obama trounced McCain by six points in the popular vote - 52%-46%. No Democrat has won over 50% of the vote since LBJ. Voter turnout was even higher than in 2004 (when both Bush and Kerry got more votes than any before them) and the vote totals show far have Obama winning more votes than George Bush. As of the current counting, McCain didn't get as many votes as either Bush or Kerry.

78% of all counties in the U.S. voted more Democratic from 2004 and only 22% voted more Republican. Obama won or tied in all age groups save for over 65. He won huge majorities of not just African Americans, but Latinos and other minorities. He got a majority of the female vote and a plurality of the male vote. Ladies and gentlemen, this was a realignment.

-I nailed the gubernatorial races at least. We held Washington (easily) and North Carolina, and we picked up Missouri.

-While the abortion bans failed, it looks like all the gay marriage bans will pass, including in California. Ironically, the increase of African American turnout for Obama helped pass Prop 8 since they are more socially conservative.

-Obama and Noriega only lost by 11-12 points which isn't great, but isn't as bad as we are used to. It was business as usual in the rest of the statewide and Congressional races though (we sadly lost Lampson). Denton County where I live was particularly terrible, with low turnout and two-thirds of Election Day voters being Republicans.

We did, however, pick up two state Senate seats (well, Chris Bell will go into a runoff). The Texas House may be tied depending on one race still to be decided... Democrats expanded their one-party control of other state legislatures from 23 states to 27 states.

-We don't have the complete picture on the House and Senate races, but it looks like we won't do as well as we thought we might (however, it's still historic to have two back-to-back waves). Dems will only pick up about half of what was expected in the House, but either way, we have a solid majority. The Senate races were a bit of a disappointment. We won 5 handily, but we are behind in AK, GA (though it is going to a runoff), OR (where Dem precincts are left), and MN (there will be a mandated recount). Glad we made Kentucky close though and gave McConnell a scare. Oh, and Joe Lieberman will soon lose his committee chairmanship.

Seriously, what the hell is wrong with Alaska? They (probably) re-elected Ted Stevens (though he may be expelled by the Senate), convicted of bribery, and Don Young. Oh well, what should I expect from the state that gave us Sarah Palin and Mike Gravel?

So we won't get 60. But there's no guarantee all Dems will vote together every single time and moderate Republicans sometimes vote with us anyway.

But no matter what else happens, BARACK OBAMA WON!!!!!!!!!!!

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