"July Surprise"

Today in his column in the New York Times, Paul Krugman mentions this:

"P.P.S.: Three weeks ago, The New Republic reported that the Bush administration was pressuring Pakistan to announce a major terrorist capture during the Democratic convention. Hours before Mr. Kerry's acceptance speech, Pakistan announced, several days after the fact, that it had apprehended an important Al Qaeda operative. "
 
The Al Qaeda operative they're referring to is Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani, who has been wanted in connection with the embassy bombings in Tanzania and Kenya. He was captured last Sunday, but the Pakistani goverment waited until yesterday to publicly announce his capture.
 
I didn't see this article in The New Republic when it came out, so I read it for myself. In it the authors discuss the pressure being put on Pakistan to produce "HVTs" in time for the November elections. I've quoted the passage Krugman is referring to specifically below:

"A third source, an official who works under ISI's director, Lieutenant General Ehsan ul-Haq, informed tnr that the Pakistanis "have been told at every level that apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is [an] absolute must." What's more, this source claims that Bush administration officials have told their Pakistani counterparts they have a date in mind for announcing this achievement: "The last ten days of July deadline has been given repeatedly by visitors to Islamabad and during [ul-Haq's] meetings in Washington." Says McCormack: "I'm aware of no such comment." But according to this ISI official, a White House aide told ul-Haq last spring that "it would be best if the arrest or killing of [any] HVT were announced on twenty-six, twenty-seven, or twenty-eight July"--the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Boston. "
 
Of course the Bush administration denies putting any such pressure to produce high-ranking members of Al Queda with the elections in mind, but the timing of Pakistan's latest announcement seems a little fishy to me too. The point of delaying the announcement of his capture until yesterday would be to draw some attention away from Kerry, and help to focus some the attention on the Bush administration and their success in the war on terror. However, given the fact that Ghailani seemed to be mostly unknown by the American public before his capture, the advantage in announcing his capture to coincide with the DNC convention is slight at best. But it does give credence to the belief that there is no issue, not even ones of national security, that the Bush administration won't play politics with.