Fires in Southwest US symptomatic of drought conditions

Parts of Oklahoma and Texas have seen less than normal amounts of rain for nearly ten years now. It's true that 2004 was phenomenally rainy, but since 1996 most regions of the state have been drier than usual, and 2005 was an especially bad year. From chron.com

This year, rain totals were down across Texas. Brownsville and San Antonio received only about half of their normal rainfall. Despite Hurricane Rita, Houston fell about 9 inches short of its usual 44 inches of rain, and the Dallas-Fort Worth area received only about 19 inches of its 32-inch normal rainfall.

Throughout the year, 28 counties were declared disaster areas because of drought. The counties, mainly in the eastern and southern portions of the state, and those surrounding them are eligible for federal disaster relief.

The results of this drought have been increasing numbers of wildfires. The wildfires that are burning right now are not the only ones that have occurred, but the latest and worst in a string of increasingly large fires.

Oklahoma Secretary of Agriculture Terry Peach said this week's wildfires were only the latest in a string of fires that started in July, when forests in southeast Oklahoma erupted in flames.In September, another round of fires raged in the western pocket of the state, near the Texas Panhandle.In November and early December, fires were reported in several areas of southeast and south-central Oklahoma.

The latest fires have consumed an estimated 30,000 acres of land (about 47 sq. miles). In addition to the quotes here, two other small Texas towns are said to have disappeared in flames. From wfaa.com:

In Montague County, near the Oklahoma border, the entire town of Ringgold was consumed by flames overnight in a fire that started Sunday afternoon in neighboring Clay County.
Powerful westerly winds drove the fire almost 20 miles to Ringgold—population 100. The tiny community didn't stand much of a chance.

[...]The Texas Forest Service said those flames destroyed 32 homes in Ringgold and damaged seven others. The town also lost its grocery store and post office.

The monstrous fire then took aim at Nocona, about 90 miles northwest of Dallas. Officials ordered an evacuation of the entire town of 3,200 Sunday night as a precaution.

Although this is definitely a disaster for some (4 deaths have been reported as well as numerous injuries and many homes burned to the ground), the fires are only part of the picture. Texas has a huge dependence on agricultural products, including livestock. Right now there's a mixed picture. West Texas ranchers did fine for 2005 and '05 was a bumper crop for cotton, so Texas will probably still hold up somewhat in 2006. From chron.com:

In the South Plains, cotton producers remain busy bringing in their portion of what is expected to be another record crop.

But without rainfall this winter, cotton yields will probably go back to normal in 2006, said Carl Anderson, professor emeritus with Texas Cooperative Extension.

Last year, Texas producers broke a 55-year record, bringing in 7.78 million bales. They are projected to break that record again this year, with projections showing a harvest of 7.84 million bales.

On the other hand (from Texas A&M):

Damage to the livestock sector could reach $1 billion by next spring, said Dr. Carl Anderson, professor emeritus with Texas Cooperative Extension. He and Dr. David Anderson, Extension agricultural economist-livestock marketing, estimated the losses from:

- The harvest of only about half of the 2005 hay crop. The lack of rainfall kept many Texas farmers from harvesting second and third cuttings of hay.

- The supplemental feeding of hay and protein to livestock for an extra three to five months.

- Fewer stocker calves in Central Texas, the Rolling Plains and the Panhandle due to a lack of moisture. Stocker calves will be shipped straight to the feedlot at lighter weights.

- Lower market prices for calves this fall.

In all, it's a negative image because unless our weather pattern changes suddenly and dramatically, there won't be enough moisture in the ground to feed another bumper crop of cotton. Also, the problem with the lack of rain is that you can't feed cattle without growing the food for them to eat.

From Agnews again:

Ranchers in East Texas typically plant 750,000 acres to 1 million acres of winter pasture as ryegrass or ryegrass blended with oats, wheat or rye, Miller said. This supplements winter diets for cows and calves, helping reduce winter feed bills.

"Even if we get rain soon, there will be little winter pasture," he said.

Fall and winter rains are also needed to recharge water in the soil for summer crops in Central and South Texas, Miller said.

"If these rains don't come, spring planting season will be much more risky than normal," he said. "With the increased price of fuel, fertilizer and seeds, the risk will be greater than in past years."

Carl Anderson is already estimating that, without rainfall this winter, cotton yields will probably go back to normal next year.

A buildup of sub-soil moisture last year enabled farmers to have the record crop this year.

"As I look at the history of the Texas cotton crop – or any dryland crop – a requirement for a bumper crop is good subsoil moisture" at planting, Carl Anderson said.

Twenty-eight Texas counties – mainly in the eastern and southern portion of the state – have been declared disaster areas due to drought, Miller said. These counties and those counties contiguous to them are eligible for federal disaster relief.

I think this quote gives a good picture of what this drought means (latimes.com):

But the federal government has estimated that the national net farm income in 2005 will be $71.8 billion, down nearly $11 billion from the previous year. And local authorities said losses in Texas and Oklahoma would probably be responsible for a significant portion of the decline.

Next year's crops, meanwhile, could be hit even harder.

"This is the worst crop situation that we've seen for a long time," Peach said. "The real economic impact of this drought will be seen in 2006."

We haven't felt this yet because this isn't the kind of disaster that anyone but farmers and ranchers immediately notice. However, the rest of us are going to be feeling it pretty soon if it goes on. This from Agnews:

The effect of agricultural drought often progresses slowly, and is even slower to hit urban consumers, Miller said.

"It hits pretty hard and very quickly in the communities across the state that have a primary source of income from agriculture," he said.

"Ultimately the agricultural drought filters into the economy of the big city in lack of sales of agricultural equipment, trucks, pickups, agricultural chemicals, fertilizer, as well as a short supply of good, fresh vegetables and fruits," he said.

As the drought lingers, various stages of drought control measures will be implemented, including restrictions on outside watering, he said.

These effects could have a serious impact on the economies of the states of Texas and Oklahoma. Not to discount Oklahoma, but if something is damaging to Texas, it's damaging to the rest of the nation too. As for how damaging a continued drought could be (from Agnews):

The sale of cattle and calves make up about 50 percent of the cash receipts in the state, according to the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service.

So with a continued drought, here's the picture: crops won't grow so plentifully, which means there will be less food for cattle, which means beef prices go higher and ranchers make less profit off cattle sales. You don't have to feel bad for them, but Texas depends on receipt of taxes from those sales. Also the fruit and vegetables that Texas grows will be in lesser quantity and cost more. Same problem, not to mention the fact that that means even fewer of us will be able to eat decently. Also, cotton, also a huge part our economy, won't be there to make up for any shortfalls in other areas. Plus which, if the drought continues through 2006, cotton could be hit as hard as other areas.

Lest this all seem to be too much about money, the human costs include farmers and ranchers going bankrupt, people who produce agricultural equipment losing their jobs, and the state having less money to fund projects that benefit all its citizens. In short, let's hope for a lot of rain.