...In the past few days, it has become clear that the two countries are also pursuing similar diplomatic strategies. North Korea's threat to launch a long-range ballistic missile seems a clear echo of Iran's recent strategy of resuming production of nuclear fuel. Iran was aiming to extract concessions from the Bush administration, and it has already won some modest diplomatic gains.
The two countries' influence on each other has been a two-way street. Earlier this year Iran threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and evict all inspectors if it felt it was under too much pressure from the West. North Korea did withdraw from the treaty three years ago.A senior administration official who deals with the nuclear programs of both countries, who asked not to be identified because he was discussing intelligence issues, said Friday, "I think they do pay a lot of attention to how the steps taken by the other work out." But he said that the countries have had "a rocky relationship" at times, and that threatening missile tests "has been in the North Korean playbook for some time."
In other words, North Korea has their own tricks up their sleeves, and they've been playing this game with us for a long time now. But they've also learned the appropriate lessons from Iran in dealing with us, namely, that they are not necessarily in a position of weakness. By deploying the missile North Korea has essentially called our bluff and forced our hand at the same time; will we respond with force, or will we respond by making concessions to get the process moving again? Considering our current situations in Afghanistan and Iraq, we really don't have much choice in the matter. The North Koreans and Iranians know that, and will continue to play a delicate and dangerous game with us.
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