House Outlook 2008

In just the last week, two Republican congressmen from Ohio decided not to run for re-election, raising the number to 12 of members of their party to do so since the beginning of the year. About half are in secure districts, but it still suggests Republicans see the writing on the wall as far as their prospects for retaking the House majority go. Also, former House Speaker Dennis Hastert has decided to resign his seat later this year. Republicans would normally be expected to win this seat, but a special election could potentially be held on Illinois' Feb. 5th presidential primary day. Obama supporters will be coming out to show their support, and the influx of Democrats could tip the race in their favor. Oh, and newly sworn in Congresswoman Nikki Tsongas (wife of the late Sen. Paul Tsongas) successfully fended off her opponent whom Republicans thought could win in a special election this past Tuesday. Her swearing in brings the Democratic majority in the House to 233 members, compared to 200 Republicans, with two vacancies.

CQPolitics says Dems carry momentum into the 2008 race, especially looking at the DCCC's fundraising (what is especially encouraging is the early money raised by freshman Dems in competitive districts). Stu Rothenberg's ratings are here, MyDD's take is here, and the Cook Political Report's chart is here.

Anyway, things look good right now for Democrats.