United States House Races Thread

This thread will serve to provide updates on the outcomes of the United States House races. A handy link to this post is on the upper right-hand corner of the blog, but I will probably keep promoting this post along with our other election threads to the top of the blog. For the sake of ease of reading, I'll skip the "Update" addendum that usually accompanies a change to the post, and just add information as we get it. Necessarily, we will only be following contested House races.

MSNBC is calling it for Murtha (whew!)

Texas: McCaul (R) will defeat challenger Democratic Larry Doherty for HD 10. Sadly, it's looking like Nick Lampson, who took over Tom DeLay's seat in 2006, will lose to Pete Olson. John Culberson (R) defeats challenger Michael Skelly.

Chris Shays, Connecticut's 22-year GOP incumbent, has lost. Democrats now hold all House seats from New England and New York.

John Adler (D) defeats Christ Myers in New Jersey to take the Republican open seat.

Tim Mahoney, successor to Mark Foley in Florida, has lost to his Republican challenger. But elsewhere in Florida, GOP incumbents Tom Feeney and Ric Keller have both lost.

In Illinois, Debbie Halvorson (d) has taken the seat vacated by its Republican incumbent.

In Minnesota, Republican Michelle Bachman held onto her seat despite sticking her foot all the way down her mouth and out her ass by calling for investigations into anti-American members of Congress. From here on out she will probably be more circumspect, thought probably not less idiotic.

Kissell defeats Republican incumbent Hays in North Carolina.

Gerry Connolly (D) succeeds retiring incumbent Tom Davis (R) in Virginia. The race between Goode (R) and Perriello (D) in southern Virginia is too close to call.

So far, Democrats have gained a net of 14 seats in the House. Not the stunning numbers of the 2006 mid-terms by any means, but increasing the majority in the House has never been as crucial as gaining a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and taking the White House.

Score another House seat for Dems

Yes, Democrats won another House special election in a solid Republican district. Congratulations to Rep.-elect Travis Childers of Mississippi's first district. Democrats now have a 236-199 advantage in the U.S. House, having started the cycle 233-202.

Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis in a special election to fill the final few months of a two-year term in Congress. The seat was vacated when Roger Wicker was appointed to the U.S. Senate after Trent Lott resigned. The NRCC spent over $1.3 million in this race. Turnout may end up exceeding 100,000 when all is said and done.

Just another good sign for Dems in the fall.

Democrats win yet another House seat

While the presidential race looks 50/50 right now between McCain and Obama/Clinton, this continues to look like a blowout year for Democrats in Congress. Democrat Don Cazayoux won a special congressional election in Louisiana by taking a seat Republicans have held since 1974. Democrats now have a 235-199 advantage in the U.S. House, having started the cycle 233-202.

Democrat wins Dennis Hastert's seat!

Democrat Bill Foster won the special election for former House Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat tonight. Foster, whom Obama made this ad for, beat Republican Jim Oberweis in the longtime GOP district, increasing the Democratic House majority by one more seat. Another election for the seat will be held in November for a new, full term and it will likely be another tough race, but this is great news for Dems tonight and very bad news for Republicans to lose in what was once such a stronghold for them.

Republican Retirements Continue to Increase

From RCP:

In the past week alone, Reps. Jim Walsh, Ron Lewis, Dave Weldon and Tom Davis have all announced they will not seek another term next year. Missouri Republican Kenny Hulshof, who represents a district just north of St. Louis, said he will run for governor, a seat that came open when incumbent Republican Matt Blunt surprised political observers by withdrawing after just one term.

These announcements bring to 27 the number of open seats Republicans will have to defend in November, and there may still be more to come. Many of these seats are considered "safe" Republican seats (there can be and inevitably will be surprises though), but there are still many good pickup opportunities for Democrats and it suggests a general mood among Republicans that this is not their year.

The sheer number of open/competitive Republican seats on both the House and Senate seats makes Republicans regaining control a near impossibility. The best they can hope to do is simply reduce Democratic numbers, and even then, it is far more likely that they'll lose seats instead. Most political observers seem to think it's a question of how many seats Republicans will lose this year, not if they will lose any. It's hard to see that changing given the obstacles they have.

It's no wonder that Republicans are (most likely) nominating John McCain - despised by the conservative base - for the presidential election. He's their best shot at retaining the White House, their last bastion of any power.

House Outlook 2008

In just the last week, two Republican congressmen from Ohio decided not to run for re-election, raising the number to 12 of members of their party to do so since the beginning of the year. About half are in secure districts, but it still suggests Republicans see the writing on the wall as far as their prospects for retaking the House majority go. Also, former House Speaker Dennis Hastert has decided to resign his seat later this year. Republicans would normally be expected to win this seat, but a special election could potentially be held on Illinois' Feb. 5th presidential primary day. Obama supporters will be coming out to show their support, and the influx of Democrats could tip the race in their favor. Oh, and newly sworn in Congresswoman Nikki Tsongas (wife of the late Sen. Paul Tsongas) successfully fended off her opponent whom Republicans thought could win in a special election this past Tuesday. Her swearing in brings the Democratic majority in the House to 233 members, compared to 200 Republicans, with two vacancies.

CQPolitics says Dems carry momentum into the 2008 race, especially looking at the DCCC's fundraising (what is especially encouraging is the early money raised by freshman Dems in competitive districts). Stu Rothenberg's ratings are here, MyDD's take is here, and the Cook Political Report's chart is here.

Anyway, things look good right now for Democrats.