Wednesday, March 05, 2008

The Aftermath

Obviously I'm disappointed that Obama didn't win the popular vote in Texas (I blame the blatant fear tactics and scare mongering from the Clinton camp over the last week or so) and that the Democratic race is continuing after tonight, since this gives John McCain (now the nominee with enough delegates and Huckabee dropping out) time to start running a general election campaign while Clinton tries to overtake Obama - which still seems rather unlikely in the end. Winning Ohio and Texas gives a great psychological boost to the campaign that keeps it alive, but Obama extended his lead in pledged delegates, mostly since Texas delegates are allocated based on the results in the 31 Senate districts and the caucus results - which Obama won handily (my precinct, 410 in Denton County, went 92-22 for Obama for a 7-2 delegate split. All my hard work making 400+ phone calls and block walking as an Obama precinct captain may have actually had an impact! Also, Denton County itself went solidly for Obama!).

But it's hard to see how Clinton's newfound momentum will last long given that Obama will likely win the Wyoming caucuses and Mississippi primary in just the next week - and then there's 6 more week until PA where - as Howard Fineman said - Obama will have a chance to introduce himself to the state in a way he hasn't for Ohio, Texas, and other states in the past. But even if Clinton wins it, she still won't retake the delegate lead and a majority of the rest of the states will likely go for Obama, who has already won twice as many states as Hillary (in fact, even if Hillary won 16 in a row, she couldn't match Obama's insurmountable delegate lead). Along with seating the current FL and MI delegations, Clinton *must* convince super delegates to vote against the popular will and grant her the nomination. If such a thing happened, I'd leave the Democratic Party since it would essentially mean the party elites oppose democracy... I don't think this will happen, but tonight's results do increase the likelihood of a brokered convention. I really wish this thing was just over, but hey, at least I did my part for my candidate and can relish in the victory in my area for him.

In the end, Obama's still ahead but Clinton's still alive. This long race just got a little longer. But it's out of our hands now.


Torrance Stephens bka All-Mi-T said...

Now the fun realy begins, and i cant wait

Xanthippas said...

There's a lot of people out there who seem to think that Clinton's wins in "big states" helps her. They would do well to remember that she won Texas Democrats; Texas itself will certainly go for McCain no matter who the Democratic nominee is. I just don't think it matters that she's won the big states, as much as it matters what states the nominees have won overall and who they're pulling in to vote for them.

Nat-Wu said...

We need to do a map of states that Obama and Clinton have won vs. states that we expect Democrats to win and lose in the 08 Presidential election (based on historical voting records). Texas and Ohio both went red last time, although California is pretty solidly blue. Florida is red and Michigan is barely blue. If Hillary succeeds in getting those votes to count, all she's doing is including states in which she's doomed to lose (which even Obama would probably lose). Not that those states don't deserve to be counted, but seriously, it's kind of too late for a do-over.

Fan Boy said...

Ohio is the pivitol bell weather state. Why? Because NO ONE has ever become president while loosing Ohio in the primaries of their party.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic race, the fact that Obama lost it if he wins - IS A VERY BIG DEAL.

PS Xanthippas you condtridict your comments about a red and blue Texas in your comments today