Thursday, March 06, 2008

Texas Is In Play

Earlier I blogged about the possibilities of one of the Democratic candidates winning Texas in the Presidential general election in November. I suggested that it's a little too early to know if such an event is a possibility, but that we know with more certainty that Democrats on down ballot races will do well in an energized Democratic turnout. Survey USA though isn't afraid to speculate, and in this survey of voters in each state, Obama comes out ahead of McCain in the electoral vote losing Texas only narrowly, 47 to 46 percent (Hillary loses 49 - 42 percent, still a respectable margin but less ripe for an upset; she also still wins the general, but by a smaller margin.)So perhaps it's not too early to start speculating about the possibilities of a Democratic victory in Texas after all.


Fan Boy said...

I will wait until we start to see the real turnout of the Republican party in November. I believe it is artificially low across the nation due to their candidate being choosen prior to these wrap up contests.

Also McCain is going to enjoy seeing the dems beat each other help while he quietly builds momentum.

Nat-Wu said...

I don't know about that, fan boy. Republican primary turnout was 1.38 million, but in 2000 (the last time they had an election of a non-incumbent President) it was 1.12. They showed up to the polls. The problem is that these past 8 years have galvanized the silent majority into finally voicing their dissatisfaction. More people showed up to vote than ever have before and more people voted in the Democratic primary than ever have before. Given that more Republicans also showed up than 8 years ago, the last time they were electing a new President, I think that says that Texans are prepared to go back and do it again in November.

Now it's true that a lot of Republicans are going to show up for the general elections who didn't for the primaries, and perhaps more if they're scared by hearing that for once a Democrat may carry Texas, but a lot of those Democratic voters are going to show up again too. There's a very real chance we could flip this thing.

Also, you can't assume all those Republicans are going to go back to vote for McCain. Did you see that Huckabee got 38% of the vote (when, as you say, this thing has already been decided)? Far-Right Republicans detest McCain. He may not be able to pull his base into this thing, and you know what the #1 rule is? You have to win your base.