I just now got an email from Sam Wang announcing the re-launch of his Meta-Analysis of State Polls for 2008, an automated compilation of state-level polls from around the country. Read here to understand how his methodology differs from Nate Silver's of fivethirtyeight.com fame. A pay-per-view cage match is expected shortly.
So what's his bottom line? Simple: as of noon today, he predicts that Obama wins 306 electoral votes to McCain's 232 [if the election were held today at noon]. As you can see by eyeballing the chart on the right, he basically projects about a 99% chance of Obama winning the presidency, and that's after McCain's recent minor climb in a few of the national polls. It's not over til it's over, but the numbers still heavily favor Obama.
And no silly tire-pressure gauges are going to change that.