Divided Campaign

Going into the weeks before the election, the McCain campaign was apparently bitterly divided over Sarah Palin:

Ms. Palin, who laughingly told the prankster that she could be president “maybe in eight years,” was the catalyst for a civil war between her campaign and Mr. McCain’s that raged from mid-September up until moments before Mr. McCain’s concession speech on Tuesday night. By then, Ms. Palin was in only infrequent contact with Mr. McCain, top advisers said.

“I think it was a difficult relationship,” said one top McCain campaign official, who, like almost all others interviewed, asked to remain anonymous. “McCain talked to her occasionally.”

But Mr. McCain’s advisers also described him as admiring of Ms. Palin’s political skills. He was aware of the infighting, they said, but it is unclear how much he was inclined or able to stop it.

The disputes between the campaigns centered in large part on the Republican National Committee’s $150,000 wardrobe for Ms. Palin and her family, but also on what McCain advisers considered Ms. Palin’s lack of preparation for her disastrous interview with Katie Couric of CBS News and her refusal to take advice from Mr. McCain’s campaign.

But behind those episodes may be a greater subtext: anger within the McCain camp that Ms. Palin harbored political ambitions beyond 2008.

As late as Tuesday night, a McCain adviser said, Ms. Palin was pushing to deliver her own speech just before Mr. McCain’s concession speech, even though vice-presidential nominees do not traditionally speak on election night. But Ms. Palin met up with Mr. McCain with text in hand. She was told no by Mark Salter, one of Mr. McCain’s closest advisers, and Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain’s top strategist.

On Wednesday, two top McCain campaign advisers said that the clothing purchases for Ms. Palin and her family were a particular source of outrage for them. As they portrayed it, Ms. Palin had been advised by Nicolle Wallace, a senior McCain aide, that she should buy three new suits for the Republican National Convention in St. Paul in September and three additional suits for the fall campaign. The budget for the clothes was anticipated to be from $20,000 to $25,000, the officials said.

Instead, in a public relations debacle undermining Ms. Palin’s image as an everywoman “hockey mom,” bills came in to the Republican National Committee for about $150,000, including charges of $75,062 at Neiman Marcus and $49,425 at Saks Fifth Avenue. The bills included clothing for Ms. Palin’s family and purchases of shoes, luggage and jewelry, the advisers said.

The advisers described the McCain campaign as incredulous about the shopping spree and said Republican National Committee lawyers were likely to go to Alaska to conduct an inventory and try to account for all that was spent.

Of course, as the article says, some of this back-stabbing is natural after a failed campaign, as each of the advisors tries to avoid being stuck with the legacy of a loss. But I'd say there's been enough anonymous quotes and rumors in the news to support the idea that there was at least some amount of internal fighting going on that's greater than what we'd witness in a typically healthy campaign. I know some lefty bloggers will link to this story just to go "ha ha" or marvel at the ineptitude of the McCain campaign, but I also think these stories reveal something about McCain as a leader. Without a doubt Palin had a highly negative effect on the ticket that probably outweighed the inspiration she provided to the Republican base (at least if polls of people's opinions of her are to be believed.) But I think to some extent some people were also turned off by these stories of infighting, as they rightly wondered exactly what sort of leader permits himself to be surrounded by people who he can't quite seem to control and who are apparently engaged in shameless self-promotion. In other words, the Palin pick wasn't merely reflective of McCain's ideas on policy and the importance of policy itself (or lack of importance, I should say.) And it also doesn't merely indicate McCain's willingness to make hasty and poorly thought out decisions. Beyond that, it says something about his inability to manage the people around him. And surely there were some people thinking, haven't we seen enough of that already?

UPDATE: And in contrast, Obama's campaign provides glimpses of his leadership ability:

For a candidate who began as a novice on the national stage, Obama proved remarkably steady, anchored and unruffled. Those personal attributes, if they are indicative of presidential character, could provide the ballast that any administration needs when turbulence hits -- as it did at various times during the campaign. His temperament as a candidate suggests a president not given to highs and lows, and his campaign foreshadows a White House more orderly than those of the two most recent Democratic presidents, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.

When others doubted his candidacy in the summer and fall of 2007, Obama stayed true to the course he and his advisers had set at the start of the campaign. When he suffered setbacks at the hands of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in this year's primaries, he made readjustments without rancor and kept moving forward. When the financial markets cratered in September, and Sen. John McCain scurried in different directions in response, the measured reaction by Obama and his campaign helped persuade doubters about his fitness to be president.

"They reacted very well under those circumstances, almost a model presidential candidate reaction, compared to McCain, who reacted as a maverick senator," said political scientist and presidential scholar Charles O. Jones.

Just as some voters were put-off by the erratic nature and questionable leadership of McCain, they were put at ease by the calm, cool and collected leadership of Obama. It's impossible to say with any certainty how Obama will govern as President, but what we've seen so far is very, very reassuring.

Obama's Keys to Victory

What were the keys to Obama's victory last night? I have my ideas. Here they are (though not in order of importance because honestly, I couldn't say which had more impact than others, at least not enough to rank them):

• The economy: Obama experienced some "luck" in this regard. What was horrendous for us was great for his campaign, as the rapid acceleration of the global financial meltdown absolutely swamped the McCain campaign. McCain, already percieved as weaker on the economy than matters of national security and foreign policy, was at a loss for what to do when the crisis broke. In what is probably his second greatest gambit after picking Palin for VP, McCain rushed back to D.C., only to appear mostly irrelevant to the bailout process. Instead of undoing Obama's natural advantage as a Democrat on the economy, McCain only damaged his own standing. 

• George Bush and the GOP: Republicans are quick to spin this election as a referendum on eight years of George Bush. The election wasn't entirely about Republican ineptitude, but any Republican candidate was going to start out behind thanks to the massive shift in the public mood against the GOP. It only hurt McCain that he was forced to play to the right-wing base in order to shore up support for his candidacy; in doing so, he only confirmed to many voters that he wouldn't be substantially different from what they'd already seen for eight years.

• The Death of the "Southern Strategy": It's hard to say with any confidence what this election means to the electorate as a whole, except in one sense; it's safe to say that the "southern strategy", the practice of pandering to racist voters in the South that has been carried out by every Republican Presidential campaign since Nixon, is dying if not already dead. The Republican party played this strategy to the hilt. Not only did Republican campaigns wink and nod to the racists in their party, they came to identify the white, working-class voter (who just so happens to be racist, or at least deeply suspicious of minorities) as the "ultimate American" voter and perpetuated a culture war that attempted to define their supporters as "real" Americans and Democrats as latte-sipping "elitists." But the Republican party was trapped by its own game, forced to nominate an unqualified governor for Vice President because the base of the party, now comprised of these white voters, could only relate to someone like themselves; anti-intellectual, under-educated, confidently ignorant, overtly religious, and white. Unfortunately, time and demographics have caught up to the Republican party. Voters comfortable with these tactics now tend to reside largely in the south and the plains states; what only two years ago was a region that was ceded in advance by Democrats, is now overnight the only safe region that Republicans can count on. If the Republican party continues to identify itself as primarily the party of these voters and continues to value the votes of it's poorer whites above other groups of voters, it will become at best a regional party incapable of fashioning a coalition sufficient to win national election.

• Sarah Palin: Speaking of playing to the base...McCain's greatest gambit was his selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. The move was a blatant pandering to the right-wing base of the Republican party and although it energized the party faithful, it turned off swing voters and right-leaning Dems in droves. The McCain campaign sensed-probably rightly-that a safe, conservative campaign wouldn't be enough against Obama, and they had a serious enthusiasm gap to deal with. Unfortunately for them, the enthusiasm Sarah Palin generated could not hope to make up for the negative effect it had on the McCain campaign as a whole.

• The McCain campaign: Often, it appears that McCain's worst enemy was himself, or at least, his campaign advisors. McCain's advisors could never quite decide what they wanted to sell to the public. Part of the problem was they could never quite settle on what issue would damage Obama the most, largely because no attacks that they mounted gained any traction (for example Iraq, which was largely negated as an issue in the campaign.) At the same time, those attacks failed to gain traction in part because the campaign never gave them time to work. The Bush campaign in '04 settled on one strategy; identify Kerry's weaknesses and attack them relentlessly from beginning to end. But the McCain campaign could never quite figure out what they wanted people to like least about Obama; his associations, his ideology, his lack of experience, his anti-American leanings, etc., etc. Indeed it was a laundry list of things voters were supposed to reject, but the only thing McCain apparently asked them to embrace was his "experience." It wasn't enough. The McCain campaign was also extremely undisciplined. In the weeks leading up to the election we heard McCain's advisors make pronouncements about how they couldn't win if the election was about the economy as well as throw each other and Palin under the bus in anonymous quotes in major news articles. None of this gave Americans the impression that the McCain campaign had any idea what if was doing, and I think in large part Americans attributed this failing to McCain himself; his inability to pick quality advisors reflected on his judgment. That contrasts with....

• The Obama Campaign: It is generally agreed that Obama and his advisors ran a nearly flawless campaign. There were no serious gaffes, crises were dispatched hastily, advisors who appeared in the media were disciplined and on message, the grassroots organization was light-years beyond anything we've seen to this point, the 50-state strategy was bold and effective, and the message to the public was short, memorable and convincing. Obama credited his two most senior advisors in his speech last night, David Axelrod and David Plouffe, and he was right to do so; the two men engineered the kind of campaign that Joe Trippi could only dream about. The Obama campaign was essentially the anti-Rove campaign; instead of the 50+1 approach, Obama's campaign fought for votes in every state of the union. The landslide victory, and the political implications thereof (a mandate far beyond anything Rove ever hoped for) are the direct result. Of course, it would be criminal to overlook the literally millions of people who contributed or volunteered on Obama's behalf. The Obama campaign may have known exactly how to harness that power and enthusiasm, but it was these volunteers, many young, some old, all fired up for Obama, that delivered the votes to make this victory a landslide. 

• Barack Obama: Of coure, Americans did not turn out to vote for Obama's campaign; they turned out to vote for Obama. They are not likely to regret their choice. Obama demonstrated through the two-year long campaign that he was cool, level-headed, possessed of great equanimity, poised, well-spoken, intelligent and thoughtful. The reason many of the McCain campaigns attacks failed to work against Obama is because each time Obama appeared in the public eye, he demonstrated attributes in opposition to the ones McCain tried to paint him with. At no time was this more evident than in the flap over Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Obama proved to America that he was a different kind of politician when he turned the crisis, which threatened to derail his campaign, into an opportunity to confront the issue of race head-on in one of the most masterful political speeches of the modern era. In his speech Obama was direct, considered, and sincere. He treated the public as adults who could handle a frank discussion about race from a national figure, and he was not wrong. America has rewarded him in turn.

And so those are my thoughts. But I'm sure there are many things I'm leaving out. Your comments are welcome.

Presidential Election Thread

This thread will serve to provide updates on the outcome of the Presidential Election. A handy link to this post is on the upper right-hand corner of the blog, but I will probably keep promoting this post along with our other election threads to the top of the blog. For the sake of ease of reading, I'll skip the "Update" addendum that usually accompanies a change to the post, and just add information as we get it.

Nate Silver gives us ten pretty good reasons to ignore the results of exit polls. He's right, those things are just crazy. Ignore them as best you can and let the pundits on cable news make fools of themselves going bonkers over them. In fact, here's the last set of polls you should be paying attention to. Am I alone in saying that I'm going to miss the daily fix of polls?

At 6:37 CST, it's Vermont for Obama and Kentucky for McCain.

MSNBC calls S. Carolina for McCain.

CNN calls Pennsylvania for Obama, though it appears to be on the basis of exit polls alone. McCain's electoral gambit in Pennsylvania appears to have failed. CNN also gives Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Washington to Obama. Oklahoma, South Carolina and Tennesse go to McCain. So far, Obama has 102 electoral votes to McCain's 34.

MSNBC calls Ohio for Obama. CNN now follows suit. That's 20 electoral votes for a total of 195 for Obama to McCain's 85.

MSNBC calls New Mexico for Obama. According to CNN there appears to be no feasible way for McCain to win at this point, barring absolutely shocking surprises.

CNN gives New Mexico to Obama, and Lousiana to McCain.

CNN gives Iowa to Obama, and Utah to McCain. Obama leads 206 electoral votes to McCain's 89. McCain has now taken Kansas as well.

CNN gives Arkansas to McCain.

CNN gives Texas to McCain. No surprise there, as he finally breaks the 100 electoral votes threshold. Obama is lacking 63 electoral votes to secure the Presidency, with California's 55, Washington State and Oregon yet to be called. Can you believe that at this point, Florida is essentially irrelevant?

Okay, CNN has some neat toys but seriously...holograms? That's hilarious. Fantastic and hilarious.

CNN calls Virginia for Obama. And now they've called the race for Obama; apparently they were simply waiting for the top of the hour for polls to close in California, Oregon and Washington State before they wanted to announce it.

10:18 CST: McCain concedes. 

MSNBC calls Florida for Obama. 

Obama will speak soon. If God were a prankster, we'd hear opening remarks from Rev. Wright and William Ayers.

Not This Time

Want to know the difference between the 2004 election and this year? This time, the Democratic candidate will spend his last day of campaigning in three states that were red last time around, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. And for good reason; Obama leads in every state Kerry won last time, and is set to win many more besides. 

The Difference Between the Right and the Left

Is basically summed up by their separate reactions to facts. In the face of polling giving every indication that Obama will comfortably win tomorrow, Democrats wait with baited breath for the election to be stolen from them. In the face of polling giving every indication that McCain will go down in flames tomorrow, right-wingers trumpet the imminent McCain victory. 

Election Day Eve

For us partisans, Election Day is something of a holiday, and the day before is of course a holiday eve. For Democrats, this election day is starting to feel like Christmas, so you can imagine how giddy with anticipation we are, as well as with trepidation that we won't get what we asked Santa to bring us. Nonetheless, it's shaping up to be a very good day for Democrats tomorrow. A survey of the polls finds Obama leading nationally by anywhere from two to thirteen points, depending on how the poll is being conducted. Obama maintains a steady and insurmountable lead among likely voters, and McCain's only hope is that an astonishingly high percentage of undecideds turn out to vote for him in key states, a possibility that is vanishingly slight. Given that Obama has several routes to victory, the compelling story may really be which formerly Republican states flip over to Obama.

As for the Senate, several races have shifted to the Democrats in recent weeks, though it does not appear likely that Democrats will seize the 60-member majority that was hoped for. The Stevens conviction has apparently sunk any hope the GOP had of retaining Alaska, Kay Hagan has pulled ahead of Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, and Jeff Merkley has pulled ahead of Gordon Smith in Oregon. Franken and Coleman remain neck-and-neck in Minnesota. At the same time though, McConnell and Chambliss have opened up small leads over their opponents, and Texas appears to be out of reach for the Democrats and Rick Noriega. So, a seven seat pick up is likely, an eight seat pick up remains entirely possible, but anymore seats after that would require minor upsets which don't seem likely at this point.

Of course the not-so-secret Democratic weapon in all of these contests is turnout, and by a large measure early voting in Texas is dwarfing 2004 totals. This is of course inspired by the massive interest in the Presidential election, but early indicators about the affect this will have on down-ballot races in Texas are mixed at best. Democrats are turning out in huge numbers, but Republicans may turn out in significant numbers in certain districts to vote against Obama and down-ballot Democrats as well. There simply is no way to tell what impact turnout is having before the votes are counted tomorrow night.

Texas Progressive Alliance Round-Up, Election Eve Edition

It is Monday, November 3, 2008. In less than 24 hours, the United States will have elected a new President and Texas will--hopefully--send Rick Noriega to the U.S. Senate and a host of new State Representatives and Senators to Austin.

In the meantime, here is your Election Eve edition of the Texas Progressive Alliance's weekly roundup.

Bradley from North Texas Liberal lets us know that you should be careful not to lose your vote if you have to use an electronic voting machine, like TV personality Oprah Winfrey almost did.

jobsanger believes an avalanche of new voters could produce some surprises on election day, including the possibility that Georgia will turn blue, and even though an amazing 23% of Texans think Obama is muslim, a huge turnout in the urban areas and South Texas could produce some surprises in Texas, and early voting totals show this is happening.

Justin at AAA-Fund Blog is glad that 60% of Asian Americans polled in Harris County support the Democrats. He also is glad that voting this year was not a chore as it often feels. Justinurges everyone to support AAA-Fund's five Texas endorsees: Rick Noriega, Al Green, Nick Lampson, Hubert Vo, and Sandra VuLe.

It's been an exciting week for Democrats. First up was Hank Gilbert asking a Cornyn staffer to take a walk from a Rick Noriega event. Then there was Texas Blogger (and current TPA Chair) Vince Leibowitz spanking the Mike McCaul campaign for their amateurish content theft. Finally, we at McBlogger received word that Dr. Dobson had traveled to the future and didn't like what he saw. Which is something you'll probably love.

Vince at Capitol Annex tells us how State Rep. John Davis (R-Clear Lake) is sending out his wife to attack Netroots backed candidate Sherrie Matula (D-Houston). In return, he opens John Davis' own personal Pandora's Box and tells the world about Davis' record.

The Texas Cloverleaf notes that Barack Obama leads John McCain in fundraising in Denton County of all places! In nonpartisan news, while Obama is raising money, Ron Natinsky is spending it. The Dallas City Councilmember is spending your tax dollars on trinkets bearing his name. In shocking news, No, we couldn't make this stuff up if we wanted to.

After record breaking early voting in Williamson County, Eye On Williamson is ready for the general election. The HD-52 race has been the focus of attention this election cycle. The issues concerning voters in HD-52 include the Trans-Texas Corridor, insurance reform, and the economy. No matter the issue Diana Maldonado is the best choice in HD-52.

WhosPlayin looks at the early voting turnout in Texas' 26th Congressional District, and thinks a Ken Leach just might be able to upset incumbent Michael Burgess. WhosPlayin asks you to guess whether this incident of political suppression happened in Liberia or Texas. (Hint: It was Harris County, Texas.) Most of all, WhosPlayin wants Denton County residents to get to the polls and VOTE!

Off the Kuff takes his last looks at early voting, and makes fun of some whining by Republican enablers Texans for Lawsuit Reform.

El Paso is going Democratic in a big way. As El Paso goes so should South Texas. CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is looking for a blue, blue
Thanksgiving!

BossKitty at TruthHugger is laments pre-election jitters, Oh The Stress Of It All - Op Ed, and how many years will it take to recover because, Divided We Fall.

Neil at Texas Liberal says think about the future when you vote. Don't be like Galveston voters who in 1886, 14 years before the 1900 hurricane, voted no on building a seawall. Texas Liberal also offers up a post on how Texans have voted for President since 1948, and, finally, submits for your review some election predictions.

Over at TexasKoas, TxSharon tells us that somebody is finally looking at the Barnett Shale Gas Wells . Its called accountability and its about time.

boadicea provides some excellent resources/talking points on the ACORN non-story. Give a look.

Txsharon kicks off a lively debate on the the training of 4000 troops in the use of non-lethal weapons for possible domestic use.

Texas politics is screwed up for at least two obvious reasons this week: because Tom Craddick has his debates sponsored by AT&T -- complete with a lobbyist on the panel, and because 23% of all Texans think Barack Obama is a Muslim. The sad details at Brains and Eggs.

Nat-Wu discusses the long tradition in the Republican of crying wolf about voter fraud in an effort to minorities from legitimately exercising their right to vote, and Xanthippas rips into anti-woman bloggers for brewing up a faux controversy over their DART bus ads.

Union Members for Obama

Those white working-class voters that McCain is counting on to stage a coup in Pennsylvania? If the AFL-CIO's itnernal polls are to be believed, they're going to have to be something other than union members:

Among veterans, retirees and gun owners -- the three groups we microtargeted communication to in the final weeks of persuasion -- we've seen the numbers improve dramatically.

Among union gun owners, it's now 58-30 Obama, up from 48-41 in early September, a 21 point jump.

Among veterans we're at 58-32, up from 49-41 in early September. (+18)

And among retirees, we're now at 59-31, up from 52-37, a 14 point improvement, nearly double the margin

McCain's Nightmare

National polls may show a small tightening for McCain which state polls do not reflect yet, but there's one state that's tightening in a direction that McCain probably did not anticipate:

Sen. John McCain's once-comfortable lead in Arizona has all but evaporated, according to a new poll that has the underdog Republican presidential candidate struggling in his own backyard.

With less than a week until Election Day, McCain is leading his Democratic rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, by 2 points, 46 to 44, down from a 7-point lead a month ago and a double-digit lead this summer, according to a poll from Arizona State University.

Factor in the 3-percentage point margin of error, and a race that was once a nearly sure thing for McCain is now a toss-up, pollsters say.

Most polls have shown McCain with a comfortable 10-15 point lead for most of the race, and most polls still show McCain with a lead in the range of 5-8 points, but all have tightened. I would still put odds against Obama taking Arizona, or even losing by a very slim margin, but the mere fact that McCain is trailing in his own state tells you a lot about how his campaign is doing even before you take into consideration the horrible numbers he's facing in other states.

UDPATE: Matthew DeLong reminds us that Obama has managed to build such momentum in the state despite the fact that neither candidate is spending much (if any) money on advertising in Arizona.

UPDATE II: Nate Silver dismisses the idea of a lag between state and national polls that I reference above.

African Americans Key to Early Voting Turnout

Nate Silver has an interesting post at 538 examining the correlation between African-American population and early voting turnout:

The African-American population share is the key determinant of early voting behavior. In states where there are a lot of black voters, early voting is way, way up. In states with fewer African-Americans, the rates of early voting are relatively normal.

This works at the county level too. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland), which about 30 percent black, twice as many people have already voted early as in all of 2004. In Franklin County (Columbus), which is about 18 percent black and also has tons of students, early voting is already about 3x its 2004 total.

That might explain what's going on in Texas as well. For example, Dallas County has a population that is about twenty-one percent African-American, about eleven percentage points over the total in Texas. And in Dallas County, nearly 90,000 more people have turned out to vote in the first week of early voting, and estimates are that sixty percent of the total vote could come in early voting this year (over a normal total of fifty percent.) More tellingly, early voting in precincts that are predominantly African-American is way up, as much as three times as much in one precinct in Dallas County. In Tarrant County, which has a population that's about fourteen percent African-American, early voting is up by about by about 70,000 votes after one week of voting. Harris County, which has a population that's about nineteen percent African-American, is seeing early voting totals that are roughly double the 2004 campaign.

Of course, short of knowing exactly how many African-Americans have turned out to vote, one can only speculate the extent to which African-American turnout is driving early voting in Texas, especially since early voting by Democrats in generally is up hugely. Still, the trend of huge African-American turnout that I and my co-bloggers witnessed first-hand during the primary, continues strongly. Nate Silver thinks this trend isn't being factored into some polling, such that Obama could have a bigger lead in states with large African-American populations than we're being led to think thus far. And right here in Texas, Harvey Kronberg thinks this massive turnout-and a likely rout of Republicans in Texas bellweather Harris County-presages good things for Texas Democrats on Nov. 4th. 

McCain's Last Stand?

It's starting to look like McCain is going to plant the flag in Pennsylvania, and pin his hopes of becoming President on taking the state from Obama. The McCain campaign apparently believes that there are enough former working-class Hillary supporters who won't vote Obama out there to turn the tide in his favor and stage a massive upset that would rob Obama of gains in traditionally red states like Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico (all of which are trending Obama's way now.) The hitch in this strategy though is the fact that state polling paints a dismal picture for McCain, who trails in the most recent polls by anywhere from 7-12 points. Truly, it would be a shocking reversal for McCain to pick up Pennsylvania, but even a win in Pennsylvania requires that McCain pick up states that are "only" leaning towards Obama right now, and secure all of the states that are tossups or appear to be leaning his way. In other words, no only is there no room for error, but minor miracles must occur; of Virginia, Ohio and Florida, all of which Obama is leading in, two (probably three) must break his way. And if McCain loses Pennsylvania, as it's looking he will, then it's over.

National Numbers Horrible for McCain

More bad news for McCain, from the Pew Research Center:

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain.

While Obama’s support levels have not increased much in recent weeks, a growing percentage of his backers now say they support him strongly. Currently, 74% of Obama voters say they support him strongly, up from 65% in mid-September. A much smaller majority of McCain backers (56%) say they support him strongly, which is largely unchanged from mid-September.

McCain is trailing Obama in early voting by twenty percent, which is simply incredible. The enthusiasm of Obama supporters has only intensified, while McCain's remains essentially unchanged. Now if you're a Republican you're going to argue that these voters may be voting early, but they can still only vote once. But a more measured response might be to acknowledge that the enthusiasm that is reflected by such stunning early voting totals will almost certainly carry over to election day; it's not as if a majority of Obama voters will turn out prior to Nov. 4th.

It's this Bad?

Okay, so a Washington Post poll puts Obama up by eight in Virginia, but to me this poll result says even more:

It’s not considered a swing state, but Sen. John McCain’s home state of Arizona may open a window into the state of the national race. Another poll released over the weekend here shows McCain’s lead has shrunk by 10 percentage points in the past month.
According to the survey — conducted by Myers Research and Grove Insight on behalf of Project New West, a Democratic strategy group — McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama in Arizona by just four percentage points. The same poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus four points, gave McCain a 14-point lead in mid-September.

Yes, you read that right. Project New West puts McCain up by four in his home state. Now Arizona is one of those states that's trending Democratic thanks to changes in Demographics, but still...it's McCain's home state, and Obama isn't even contesting Arizona. Maybe this poll is an outlier, and maybe not, but still...if it's that close in Arizona, what does that say about McCain's chances overall?

UPDATE: Rasmussen has McCain up by only five points so no, Project New West's poll isn't an outlier. Other polls tell a similar story.

The Path to Victory

Either the fellas in the McCain campaign really think McCain still has a chance, or they're talking a good game. The truth is though, winning the election has never looked more improbable for McCain. Let's compare and contrast:

Mr. McCain’s advisers said the key to victory was reeling back those Republican states where Mr. Obama has them on the run: Florida, where Mr. McCain spent Thursday; Indiana; Missouri; North Carolina; Ohio; and Virginia. If he can hang on to all those states as well as others that are reliably red, he would put into his column 260 of the 270 electoral votes necessary to win. Mr. McCain’s advisers said they would look for the additional electoral votes they need either by taking Pennsylvania from the Democrats, or putting together some combination of Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Mr. McCain’s advisers are most concerned about Virginia, and understandably so. On the other side of the coin, Mr. McCain’s advisers believe that if he wins or comes close in Pennsylvania, he will probably win in Ohio and Florida. Aides to Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama agree that Mr. McCain remains very much in the game in Ohio and Florida. Not easy, but not impossible either.

Just to be clear, McCain needs to hold those states just to get to 260 electoral votes. The most favorable polls discussed in the 538 post that I like to above, do not make this seems likely. In fact, according to yesterday's polls, McCain is trailing in Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida (by a 4-7 point margin in the latter.) Polls from the day before show Obama ahead by 2-3 points in Virginia, an even race (roughly) in Ohio and McCain ahead in Indiana. As for the rest of the strategy, picking up Pennsylvania or some combination of other states? Well, it's safe to say that Pennsylvania is now Obama territory as he commands double digit leads in the state. All of the other states are now trending towards Obama. But it's worse than that; Obama not only holds lead in key battleground states, but he appears to be picking up steam in states that were considered safe for McCain, such as Montana, Indiana, North Dakota, and Nebraska. Obama is in a position not only to take the battleground states off the map, but take some of McCain's states away as well. That's why people are catching the scent of a blowout on Nov. 4th, beyond even just a close victory for Obama.

The McCain campaign is also hoping for uncertainty in the polls, but they're hedging their bets where there's nothing to hedge. Some polls are close no doubt, but even dismissing the polls that show the largest gap between the candidates fails to erase Obama's lead in key states. Polls can be unreliable no doubt, based on who's doing the polling and their methodology, but considered in aggregate the evidence that Obama is ahead in many key states is undeniable.

And besides, if any numbers are off, they're likely to be in Obama's favor. As we've discussed, the Democrat's voter registration efforts are paying off as voters are turning out in droves to early vote in places like Florida, Texas, Ohio and North Carolina. Those voters are voting Obama in overwhelming numbers, and this phenomenon may or may not be reflected in polls for Obama.

Now, that's not to say that something huge could happen yet that could throw this election McCain's way. But by all indicators, it would have to be a very large happening indeed. 

Polling the Battleground States

Poll results from University of Wisconsin's Big Ten Battleground Polls and Quinnipiac University show Obama amassing unassailable leads in key battleground states:

Most of the national polls -- including our NBC/WSJ survey -- are now showing Obama with a double-digit national lead. And here come a slew of brand-new state polls that also suggest Obama is in command of this presidential contest. The University of Wisconsin’s Big Ten Battleground polls have Obama up 10 points in Indiana (51%-41%), 13 points in Iowa (52%-39%), 22 in Michigan (58%-36%), 19 in Minnesota (57%-38%), 12 in Ohio (53%-41%), 11 in Pennsylvania (52%-41%), 13 in Wisconsin (53%-40%), and nearly 30 in Obama’s home state of Illinois (61%-32%). Meanwhile, there are new Quinnipiac surveys that show Obama up five points in Florida (49%-44%), 14 in Ohio (52%-38%), and 13 in Pennsylvania (53%-40%). And finally, new CNN/Time surveys find Obama ahead by five points among likely voters in Nevada (51%-46%), four points in North Carolina (51%-47%), four in Ohio (50%-46%), and 10 points in Virginia (54%-44%). The lone state survey that shows McCain ahead: CNN/Time’s West Virginia poll, where McCain’s nine (53%-44%).

Nate Silver says it's fair to consider these polls outliers or "best-case" scenarios, but that you also should consider the trends mapped by the polls, which consistently show Obama picking up more and more support in these states. Regardless of the actual numbers (which are probably lower than this) Obama is clearly gaining momentum going into Nov. 4th.

Obama tied with McCain for Rurval Vote

I guess real Americans like Obama after all.

Al Qaeda Approves of the Financial Meltdown

Al Qaeda's supporters seem to have about as much understanding of the financial crisis as most Americans. If they had any sophsitication, the would've realized long ago that if they really wanted to harm us they could've just packed up some questionable mortgages and sold them to Wall Street investment firms. Also, they seem to likeMcCain, which depending on who you ask means we either should or shouldn't vote for McCain, though I'll say if you're planning on basing your vote on who Al Qaeda endorses, you are a moron. 

The Campaign

The NY Times is previewing an article they have in this weekend's Magazine about the McCain campaign that makes for interesting (and amusing) reading. Using mostly anonymous quotes from McCain advisors, Robert Draper gives us an insider's view of the campaign as it's lurched from one theme to another in an effort to gain traction against Obama and his extremely disciplined message and campaign. You can read the entire column for yourself, but I think it's fair to summarize that the McCain campaign's greatest mistake was to run a Bushian style campaign that aimed to craft a highly manipulated public perception of the McCain at the same time that an unforgiving reality was busy catching up to the Republican Party. Obama may overplay the "four more years of the same" schtick to a small extent, but McCain has hardly helped himself by attempting to run exactly the same campaign that Bush did to win in 2000 and 2004. And his campaign manager Steve Schmidt appears to have learned little from the Bush '04 campaign, which was (as are all political races in this country, despite the efforts of Rove and other Republican spin masters) still highly dependent on outside events and the failings of the other candidate. Message discipline only counts for so much when your message (or messages, in the case of McCain) are constantly being swamped by reality.

Your Polls

It appeared over the weekend that McCain has gained some ground on Obama, narrowing Obama's lead in several major tracking polls. But the Pew Research Center says otherwise in the poll results it has released today:

Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has steadily increased since mid-September, when the race was essentially even. Shortly after the first presidential debate on Sept. 26, Obama moved to a 49% to 42% lead; that margin inched up to 50% to 40% in a poll taken just after the second debate. Currently, Obama enjoys his widest margin yet over McCain among registered voters, at 52% to 38%. When the sample of voters is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 39%.

Those are dramatically different results from the last time I wrote about Pew, on 10/01, where they had Obama at 49% and McCain at 43% among likely voters. At least according to Pew, Obama now commands a decisive 14% lead among likely voters. What else does Pew find?

Obama’s strong showing in the current poll reflects greater confidence in the Democratic candidate personally. More voters see him as “well-qualified” and “down-to-earth” than did so a month ago. Obama also is inspiring more confidence on several key issues, including Iraq and terrorism, than he did before the debates. Most important, Obama now leads McCain as the candidate best able to improve economic conditions by a wider margin (53% to 32%).

Obama’s gains notwithstanding, a widespread loss of confidence in McCain appears to be the most significant factor in the race at this point. Many more voters express doubts about McCain’s judgment than about Obama’s: 41% see McCain as “having poor judgment,” while just 29% say that this trait describes Obama. Fewer voters also view McCain as inspiring than did so in mid-September (37% now, 43% then). By contrast, 71% of voters continue to think of Obama as inspiring.

In addition, Sarah Palin appears to be a continuing – if not an increasing – drag on the GOP ticket. Currently, 49% of voters express an unfavorable opinion of Palin, while 44% have a favorable view. In mid-September, favorable opinions of Palin outnumbered negative ones by 54% to 32%. Women, especially women under age 50, have become increasingly critical of Palin: 60% now express an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 36% in mid-September. Notably, opinions of Palin have a greater impact on voting intentions than do opinions of Joe Biden, Obama’s running mate.

The more voters see of Obama, the more they like him. The more they see of Palin, the less they like her (women, proving that they are smarter than men, especially can't seem to stand her.) And the longer the campaign goes on, the more questions people have about McCain. For their part, Gallup has Obama up by either 7% or 10% depending on what model for voter turnout they use. I'm not calling anything not even this close to the election day, but Obama would have to suffer an unprecedented meltdown to surrender this lead.

UPDATE (Adam): An NBC/WSJ poll confirms these results.

UPDATE II (Adam): The Gallup, Research 2000, and Zogby tracking polls have him up similarly. Here is a good primer.

Developments

In case you missed it, Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama for President. Powell is held in considerably less esteem than he once was by people of our political persuasion thanks to his participation in selling the Iraq war, but he makes a persuasive case for Obama. Also, the Obama campaign revealed that they raised the ungodly sum of $150 million in September, shattering the record of previous campaigns, and he's using it to absolutely clobber McCain in advertising.