Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Daily Polls

Before you read any of this say to yourself three times "The race isn't over." Take a deep breath. Now, read this:

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report shows Barack Obama with a 52% to 41% lead over John McCain.

These results, based on Oct. 5-7 polling, are the best for Obama during the campaign, both in terms of his share of the vote and the size of his lead over McCain.

Voter preferences seem to have stabilized for the moment, as Obama has held a double-digit lead over McCain in each of the last three individual nights of polling.

Concern about the economy seems to be playing to Obama's advantage; he overtook McCain when the financial crisis worsened in the middle of September, and his strong showing today coincides with the worst rating of the economy this year (59% of Americans describe current economic conditions as "poor").

That's Gallup's national poll of course, but as we know, national polling proceeds trends in state polling. So what do the state polls say?

John McCain is in deep trouble. In spite of some incremental gains that McCain has made in some of the national tracking polls, the set of state polling that follows is so strong for Obama that he continues to hit record marks in all three of our projection metrics. We are now projecting Obama to win the election 90.5 percent of the time, with an average of 346.8 electoral votes, and a 5.4-point margin in the national popular vote.

Of course, these polls do not factor in last night's debate. But given what polls are saying about that, it is impossible to imagine that the debate will do anything to reverse Obama's gains to any significant degree.

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