Monday, October 27, 2008

It's this Bad?

Okay, so a Washington Post poll puts Obama up by eight in Virginia, but to me this poll result says even more:

It’s not considered a swing state, but Sen. John McCain’s home state of Arizona may open a window into the state of the national race. Another poll released over the weekend here shows McCain’s lead has shrunk by 10 percentage points in the past month.
According to the survey — conducted by Myers Research and Grove Insight on behalf of Project New West, a Democratic strategy group — McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama in Arizona by just four percentage points. The same poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus four points, gave McCain a 14-point lead in mid-September.

Yes, you read that right. Project New West puts McCain up by four in his home state. Now Arizona is one of those states that's trending Democratic thanks to changes in Demographics, but's McCain's home state, and Obama isn't even contesting Arizona. Maybe this poll is an outlier, and maybe not, but still...if it's that close in Arizona, what does that say about McCain's chances overall?

UPDATE: Rasmussen has McCain up by only five points so no, Project New West's poll isn't an outlier. Other polls tell a similar story.

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