Tuesday, October 28, 2008
It's starting to look like McCain is going to plant the flag in Pennsylvania, and pin his hopes of becoming President on taking the state from Obama. The McCain campaign apparently believes that there are enough former working-class Hillary supporters who won't vote Obama out there to turn the tide in his favor and stage a massive upset that would rob Obama of gains in traditionally red states like Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico (all of which are trending Obama's way now.) The hitch in this strategy though is the fact that state polling paints a dismal picture for McCain, who trails in the most recent polls by anywhere from 7-12 points. Truly, it would be a shocking reversal for McCain to pick up Pennsylvania, but even a win in Pennsylvania requires that McCain pick up states that are "only" leaning towards Obama right now, and secure all of the states that are tossups or appear to be leaning his way. In other words, no only is there no room for error, but minor miracles must occur; of Virginia, Ohio and Florida, all of which Obama is leading in, two (probably three) must break his way. And if McCain loses Pennsylvania, as it's looking he will, then it's over.