Thursday, October 23, 2008

Polling the Battleground States

Poll results from University of Wisconsin's Big Ten Battleground Polls and Quinnipiac University show Obama amassing unassailable leads in key battleground states:

Most of the national polls -- including our NBC/WSJ survey -- are now showing Obama with a double-digit national lead. And here come a slew of brand-new state polls that also suggest Obama is in command of this presidential contest. The University of Wisconsin’s Big Ten Battleground polls have Obama up 10 points in Indiana (51%-41%), 13 points in Iowa (52%-39%), 22 in Michigan (58%-36%), 19 in Minnesota (57%-38%), 12 in Ohio (53%-41%), 11 in Pennsylvania (52%-41%), 13 in Wisconsin (53%-40%), and nearly 30 in Obama’s home state of Illinois (61%-32%). Meanwhile, there are new Quinnipiac surveys that show Obama up five points in Florida (49%-44%), 14 in Ohio (52%-38%), and 13 in Pennsylvania (53%-40%). And finally, new CNN/Time surveys find Obama ahead by five points among likely voters in Nevada (51%-46%), four points in North Carolina (51%-47%), four in Ohio (50%-46%), and 10 points in Virginia (54%-44%). The lone state survey that shows McCain ahead: CNN/Time’s West Virginia poll, where McCain’s nine (53%-44%).

Nate Silver says it's fair to consider these polls outliers or "best-case" scenarios, but that you also should consider the trends mapped by the polls, which consistently show Obama picking up more and more support in these states. Regardless of the actual numbers (which are probably lower than this) Obama is clearly gaining momentum going into Nov. 4th.

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