Update on Texas district 105 race

Looks like it'll be at least a few more days before we know anything one way or the other. From the DMN:

Republican incumbent Linda Harper-Brown leads the House District 105 race by 29 votes as she fights for her career – and her party's current edge in the House. But there are still more than 280 provisional and absentee ballots to count, meaning Democratic challenger Bob Romano could pull out a victory.

Dallas County Elections Administrator Bruce Sherbet said it will probably be Monday before the provisional and overseas votes are counted.

That's it in a nutshell folks, but as it says in the article, this is important enough that either way we'll probably see lawyers step in and at least argue for a recount. Whether they'll get it, I don't know, but who would have thought this race could be so important?

Calling It

This blogger is calling it for the night. It's been three hours since the networks called it for Obama (10:00pm CST) and since then I swear the only thing I've done is flitter from one site to the next trying to get U.S. House totals, Texas race totals, and local Dallas and Tarrant County election totals. But you dear reader know what I know, as it's all here on the blog somewhere (see the links on the upper right.)

Clearly, it has been a historic night. It's simply incredible that Americans have elected their first African-American President, but it bears reminding that Obama wasn't elected because he's black; he was elected because a majority of Americans trust him with the future of this nation. They will not be proven wrong in their trust.

Democrats have picked up at least five seats in the Senate, and are likely to take out Stevens as well (though it's too early to say for sure.) They probably won't get Chambliss though. Too bad.

Democrats will pick up a few more seats in the House. Nothing stunning, but adding to the comfortable margin they already enjoy.

In Texas...well, Texas is a different story. The purpling of the state will have to wait, as results were decidedly mixed. Gains in the U.S. House were nil, gains in the Texas House were less than hoped for, but Wendy Davis did score an upset against Kim Brimer in the Texas Senate. Things look good for Dallas County Democrats, and less so for Tarrant County Democrats.

And that's where we are at about 1:30 CST. We'll know more in the morning, and expect that my co-bloggers and I will have much more to say about this incredible night tomorrow and in the coming days. Good night folks.

Voting Problems

It's to be expected that there will be problems on a day when millions of Texans are showing up at the polls to vote. If you experience any problems, do not hesitate to talk to the election officials at your polling place. If they can't or won't help you (or if they're the problem) do not hesitate to contact your county officials. Here's the contact information for our local counties:

Dallas County: (214) 637-7937
Tarrant County: (817) 831-8683
Collin County: (972) 547-1990
Denton County: (940) 349-3200

Or, you can call the Texas Democratic Party at (512) 478-9800, or the Texas Secretary of State at (800) 252-VOTE. If you have any problems at all, don't hesitate to get help.

Election Day Eve

For us partisans, Election Day is something of a holiday, and the day before is of course a holiday eve. For Democrats, this election day is starting to feel like Christmas, so you can imagine how giddy with anticipation we are, as well as with trepidation that we won't get what we asked Santa to bring us. Nonetheless, it's shaping up to be a very good day for Democrats tomorrow. A survey of the polls finds Obama leading nationally by anywhere from two to thirteen points, depending on how the poll is being conducted. Obama maintains a steady and insurmountable lead among likely voters, and McCain's only hope is that an astonishingly high percentage of undecideds turn out to vote for him in key states, a possibility that is vanishingly slight. Given that Obama has several routes to victory, the compelling story may really be which formerly Republican states flip over to Obama.

As for the Senate, several races have shifted to the Democrats in recent weeks, though it does not appear likely that Democrats will seize the 60-member majority that was hoped for. The Stevens conviction has apparently sunk any hope the GOP had of retaining Alaska, Kay Hagan has pulled ahead of Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, and Jeff Merkley has pulled ahead of Gordon Smith in Oregon. Franken and Coleman remain neck-and-neck in Minnesota. At the same time though, McConnell and Chambliss have opened up small leads over their opponents, and Texas appears to be out of reach for the Democrats and Rick Noriega. So, a seven seat pick up is likely, an eight seat pick up remains entirely possible, but anymore seats after that would require minor upsets which don't seem likely at this point.

Of course the not-so-secret Democratic weapon in all of these contests is turnout, and by a large measure early voting in Texas is dwarfing 2004 totals. This is of course inspired by the massive interest in the Presidential election, but early indicators about the affect this will have on down-ballot races in Texas are mixed at best. Democrats are turning out in huge numbers, but Republicans may turn out in significant numbers in certain districts to vote against Obama and down-ballot Democrats as well. There simply is no way to tell what impact turnout is having before the votes are counted tomorrow night.

Texas Progressive Alliance Round-Up, Election Eve Edition

It is Monday, November 3, 2008. In less than 24 hours, the United States will have elected a new President and Texas will--hopefully--send Rick Noriega to the U.S. Senate and a host of new State Representatives and Senators to Austin.

In the meantime, here is your Election Eve edition of the Texas Progressive Alliance's weekly roundup.

Bradley from North Texas Liberal lets us know that you should be careful not to lose your vote if you have to use an electronic voting machine, like TV personality Oprah Winfrey almost did.

jobsanger believes an avalanche of new voters could produce some surprises on election day, including the possibility that Georgia will turn blue, and even though an amazing 23% of Texans think Obama is muslim, a huge turnout in the urban areas and South Texas could produce some surprises in Texas, and early voting totals show this is happening.

Justin at AAA-Fund Blog is glad that 60% of Asian Americans polled in Harris County support the Democrats. He also is glad that voting this year was not a chore as it often feels. Justinurges everyone to support AAA-Fund's five Texas endorsees: Rick Noriega, Al Green, Nick Lampson, Hubert Vo, and Sandra VuLe.

It's been an exciting week for Democrats. First up was Hank Gilbert asking a Cornyn staffer to take a walk from a Rick Noriega event. Then there was Texas Blogger (and current TPA Chair) Vince Leibowitz spanking the Mike McCaul campaign for their amateurish content theft. Finally, we at McBlogger received word that Dr. Dobson had traveled to the future and didn't like what he saw. Which is something you'll probably love.

Vince at Capitol Annex tells us how State Rep. John Davis (R-Clear Lake) is sending out his wife to attack Netroots backed candidate Sherrie Matula (D-Houston). In return, he opens John Davis' own personal Pandora's Box and tells the world about Davis' record.

The Texas Cloverleaf notes that Barack Obama leads John McCain in fundraising in Denton County of all places! In nonpartisan news, while Obama is raising money, Ron Natinsky is spending it. The Dallas City Councilmember is spending your tax dollars on trinkets bearing his name. In shocking news, No, we couldn't make this stuff up if we wanted to.

After record breaking early voting in Williamson County, Eye On Williamson is ready for the general election. The HD-52 race has been the focus of attention this election cycle. The issues concerning voters in HD-52 include the Trans-Texas Corridor, insurance reform, and the economy. No matter the issue Diana Maldonado is the best choice in HD-52.

WhosPlayin looks at the early voting turnout in Texas' 26th Congressional District, and thinks a Ken Leach just might be able to upset incumbent Michael Burgess. WhosPlayin asks you to guess whether this incident of political suppression happened in Liberia or Texas. (Hint: It was Harris County, Texas.) Most of all, WhosPlayin wants Denton County residents to get to the polls and VOTE!

Off the Kuff takes his last looks at early voting, and makes fun of some whining by Republican enablers Texans for Lawsuit Reform.

El Paso is going Democratic in a big way. As El Paso goes so should South Texas. CouldBeTrue of South Texas Chisme is looking for a blue, blue
Thanksgiving!

BossKitty at TruthHugger is laments pre-election jitters, Oh The Stress Of It All - Op Ed, and how many years will it take to recover because, Divided We Fall.

Neil at Texas Liberal says think about the future when you vote. Don't be like Galveston voters who in 1886, 14 years before the 1900 hurricane, voted no on building a seawall. Texas Liberal also offers up a post on how Texans have voted for President since 1948, and, finally, submits for your review some election predictions.

Over at TexasKoas, TxSharon tells us that somebody is finally looking at the Barnett Shale Gas Wells . Its called accountability and its about time.

boadicea provides some excellent resources/talking points on the ACORN non-story. Give a look.

Txsharon kicks off a lively debate on the the training of 4000 troops in the use of non-lethal weapons for possible domestic use.

Texas politics is screwed up for at least two obvious reasons this week: because Tom Craddick has his debates sponsored by AT&T -- complete with a lobbyist on the panel, and because 23% of all Texans think Barack Obama is a Muslim. The sad details at Brains and Eggs.

Nat-Wu discusses the long tradition in the Republican of crying wolf about voter fraud in an effort to minorities from legitimately exercising their right to vote, and Xanthippas rips into anti-woman bloggers for brewing up a faux controversy over their DART bus ads.

Update on Netroots Nation

I'm attending the "An Inside Look at the National Laboratory for Bad Government" panel, which, to put the name more clearly, is about Texas as the said lab for a Republican experiment in government. Here's the panel:



It includes several important Texas bloggers. From left to right is: Boadicea, Charles Kuffner, Matt Glazer, Vince Leibowitz, and Brian Hamon. Verily, a who's who of Texas blogging!

By the way, this is fascinating. Follow along with the live broadcast! (We're in Ballroom F)

Dan Barrett wins Texas special election

Democrat Dan Barrett won the special election tonight for Texas house district 97. Republican control of the Texas House is now down to 79-71. Democrats just need to pick up 5 more seats next year to take over. BOR has details.

Turning Tarrant County Blue II

It's an encouraging sign when even prominent Tarrant County Republicans admit to the likelihood that Tarrant County will eventually be turned back to the Democrats:

The reality is that their first big win in 20 years didn't advance their political agenda by very much and they needed the help of a Dallas group to do even that. Can the party really be hanging its hopes on a win in a race when there wasn't a dime's worth of difference between the candidates?

Yes, but not as soon as Brender is predicting, said Tarrant County Criminal Court Judge Daryl Coffey. "The idea of the Democrats taking back the county in two years or even four is totally unrealistic" he said. "There are still too many solid Republican precincts," he said. Nonetheless, the lifelong Republican believes that a Democratic takeover is probable in about 15 years, due primarily to the fast-growing Hispanic population and the traditional pendulum swing of politics in this country.

As to the growth in the hispanic population:

"...if the Democrats are to be successful", Arlington writer and LULAC activist Richard Gonzales said, the first order of the day must be the Latino voter. To win back the county, "the Democrats need to help Latino candidates get into office. ... Too often, the Democrats have asked the Latinos for their support but have not reciprocated. ... Time and demographics are on the Latino side. It's foolish for Anglos to resist the change in who will be calling the political shots in the near future."

The Republicans, Gonzales said, will never be the Latinos pals. There is now too much bitterness over immigration issues. "Until moderate Repubs take over the party and start reversing English-only proposals, the [border] wall strategy, and enforcement-only legislation, [Republicans] will not succeed in wooing Latinos in large numbers."

That seems highly unlikely, seeing as how the Republican "base" is still comprised mostly of people like this. But it's not only Hispanics that are helping to turn the tide:

The rapid growth of the Hispanic population here is the most obvious factor in the Democrats favor, but there is another that's gone unreported, Brender said the Alliance airport development in far north Fort Worth. A significant number of the firms that have moved into Alliance in the past decade, he said, are union companies. There's been a big jump in union membership in the county, especially in the northern suburbs, and most of that is thanks to Ross [Perot] Jr.'s development. "I don't think that's what he intended", Brender added with a laugh, "but it's gonna help us take back the county."

Every little bit helps.

Clearly, Tarrant County Democrats lost an opportunity this cycle by failing to run candidates in the vast majority of races in Tarrant County and taking advantage of the huge anti-Republican sentiment that swept the country. But the Republican party remains nationally as divided as ever, and it would be imprudent to imagine that the political situation will be all that different in 2008. There will be no big sweep, but there will nonetheless be an opportunity to make decent, incremental gains, here and around the country. Tarrant County Dems would be making a mistake to miss that opportunity, but judging by what they say in this column, it seems unlikely that they will.

Turning Tarrant County Blue

As you are no doubt aware by now, the mid-term elections turned Dallas County blue overnight, but Tarrant County stayed staunchly red. Tarrant County is clearly more conservative than Dallas County, but was that also partly the failure of the Tarrant County Democrats' approach?

The minority population in both counties did influence the recent election. But there were other, more important, factors. Dallas County Democrats capitalized on the national furor over Republican ethics violations, the war in Iraq, and two independent Texas governor candidates. But the key move was putting candidates on the ballot.

Look at judicial races. Democratic judges in Dallas County won all 42 of the contested races; Tarrant had only one contested judicial race of 32, and Republicans won them all. The Dallas judicial candidates pooled their resources and ran almost as a slate. This increased voter turnout, increased straight-ticket Democratic voting to 53 percent, and gave the party all the countywide races.

Why is it important to run judges on the party ticket? After all, party affiliation often has little to do with performance on the bench. But judges are a party’s bench strength, so to speak. No top-ticket superstars, they provide the bottom-level support that builds the party. They can bring out Democrat supporters who feel they actually have a choice and help in fund-raising through sheer numbers.

Tarrant County Democratic Party chair Art Brender has long thought that stacking the ballot with Democratic candidates is a waste of limited resources. So this time the Tarrant Democrats campaigned hard in only two races. In the district attorney race, they backed Terri Moore against Republican incumbent Tim Curry. In House District 93, they backed challenger Paula Hightower Pierson against incumbent Toby Goodman. One win, one loss.

I can testify personally to the utter lack of Democratic candidates on the ballot. I was shocked at the number of Republicans running unopposed in Tarrant County. Regardless, McGraw says there are signs for hope:

Are the prevailing winds changing here? There are several little trends that might move the needles a bit. Almost 60 percent of Tarrant voters went against Republican incumbent Rick Perry, meaning there is a majority of people who will go against a Republican at the top of the ticket. There is also the increase in Hispanic voters, along with the increase in newcomers who are not wedded to local traditions.

But the major change that will come into play in 2008 and 2010 is the reputation of the Republican Party nationwide. The change in Congress indicates that Democrats are more likely to come out and vote now, and the best way to take advantage of that is to fill up the ballot , as Dallas County Democrats did. It is not a stretch to think that more Democrats will be voting in Tarrant County in a presidential race without an incumbent in 2008. Party straight-ticket voting is now 51-42 percent in favor of the Tarrant Republicans, but those numbers could rise five percentage points in 2008, another five by 2010.

Tarrant may not become blue country anytime soon, but like much of urban Texas (that isn't already blue) it is gradually shifting to the left, giving Democrats hope not only in local urban races, but in state-wide Texas races and in national Congressional races. I'll go out on a limb a little bit and say Tom DeLay's fall, President Bush's troubles, the elevation of a Democrat to a prominent House committee chair, and this gradual shift, spells the beginning of the end of the dominance of Texas-style Republican politics.

UPDATE: In comments, Texa links to this story in the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram also on the subject of a blue shift in Tarrant Country. I'll try to hit the highlights when I have a moment, but I recommend reading it in full.