The Kerry Landslide

I know, I know. The race is tight. The networks says Kerry and Bush are neck-and-neck. Most national polls show Kerry leading, but it's in the margin of error, therefore it's labeled a "statistical tie." However, when one uses state polls to determine the standing in the race (as the electoral collage is what really determines who wins), you see Kerry has a bigger lead. Of course, many of those state polls are within the margin of error too in the battleground states and some will change over the next three months, though the trend favors Kerry. Nontheless, the meme from most news organizations is that is a tight race. But is it really? We won't know the bounce from Kerry's convention speech until sometime next week, but John Zogby has very interesting early analysis. Basically, Kerry's leading all Democratic base constituencies, including the Catholic vote and even leads slightly in the South, while Bush's base is eroding. But what is even more interesting is if turnout is as high as many think it might be, this election might not be as close as people think:

"Mr. Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore voters in 2000."

Now here inlies the problem with the current polling. Most polls take into account what they refer to as "likely voters." Though any thinking person might assume "likely voters" means they asked who they were polling if they were likely to vote. Not so. "Likely voters" means those who voted in the last election. We all know many thought the 2000 election was a farce and stayed home. We all also know that's not gonna be the case this time. 9/11 happened since then. Bush happened! Turnout is gonna be high, and it will favor us. I will grant you the electorate is polarized, I see that everyday, but Kerry could be very possibly win over 50% of votes (which someone hasn't done in awhile). So let's start repeating our own meme (the right and the media do it all the time, so it's only fair): Kerry, in a landslide.

UPDATE: William Saletan analyzes the polls.