Cognitive Dissonance

People don't want "big government," but they do want big government programs:

Polls show that public majorities think the government's rapidly growing cost is worrisome, yet most want better health care and curbs on global warming — but they're wary of giving government too much power to do either.

The success of those ventures in Washington could depend on how leaders frame the question during debate, said John Geer , a political science professor at Vanderbilt University .

"If you ask people, 'Do you want big government?' you get one answer," he said. "But if you say, 'Should the government have more control over the excesses of the marketplace?' you get a different one."

Even in this dismal economy, "there's no sense that the public has shifted and is more tolerant of a bigger role for government," said Michael Dimock , an associate director of the Pew Research Center , which has polled recently on the subject.

On the other hand, several surveys have shown that large segments of the public want the government to expand health care while curbing its costs, reign in business excesses and provide some safety net for the less fortunate.

When I was getting my degree in political science, I learned how important framing was, particularly in polls. If you ask respondents if they want the government to spend more money on "social welfare programs" you get a big majority opposed, but if you ask them if they want to spend more on education, health care, etc. that result is reversed. This is, of course, because "welfare," like "big government," have been turned into bad words in our political culture because people don't recognize they encompass policies there is actually broad support for.

This is particularly frustrating for progressives (who call themselves "progressive" because the term "liberal" has similarly been maligned) since conservatives have become so good at the word manipulation (so good that they often control the debate despite high unpopularity of their pols and policies). But many Democratic politicians don't help by playing along (President Clinton started this by famously declaring that the "era of big government is over," as the article points out). Instead, they should be explaining to people that "big government" is what you have when you want more government involvement in education, health care, etc. and that conservatives want "big government" too - but they want it in areas involving your personal freedoms and privacy, not in the name of the common good for all. Of course, this would require a certain nuance and maturity often lacking in American politics. Can we handle it? I don't know. But liberal politics will almost certainly continue to suffer until its proponents become as good at framing the debate as the other side.

More interesting Texas poll results

A new Texas Lyceum poll suggests that Texan attitudes towards same-sex unions may have softened a bit from 2005 when 76% voted for the gay marriage ban:

Most Texans don't oppose same-sex unions, but they're split in their support for marriage or civil unions. While more than a third (36%) oppose either arrangement, 32% said they would support civil unions and another 25% think same-sex marriages should be permitted. The poll found a distinct partisan difference, with civil unions as the preference of 29% of Democrats, 31% of Independents and 37% of Republicans; same-sex marriage the preferred alternative of 36% of Democrats, 25% of Independents, and 14% of Republicans. Allowing neither of those alternatives was the preference of 29% of Democrats,35% of Independents, and 43% of Republicans.

The partisan make-up of the state is also following the national trend of many Republicans becoming independents:

More respondents (46%) identified themselves as Independents than as Republicans (25%) or Democrats (28%). More of those who don't identify with a party said they lean Republican (29%) than lean Democrat (22%). Asked about their political outlook, more consider themselves Conservative (46%) than as Moderate (35%) or Liberal (19%).

About the same number of those polled said they are "certain" or "likely" to vote in each party's primary (Republicans, 31%; Democrats, 30%), and another 17 percent said they intend to vote in a primary but haven't yet decided which one.

Also like most Americans, Texans are willing to give President Obama's efforts on the economy a chance to work:

Texans are confident that the economic stimulus is helping to make the downturn less severe than it would otherwise be (58%), and most are willing to wait to decide whether the Obama Administration policies are working. Their patience varies: 24% will wait two or more years; 20% will wait two years; 29% will wait a year; and 23% said they're already out of patience.

Texans are pretty split on trade policies, capping greenhouse gas emissions, and stem cell research, but they are unfortunately very in favor of that terrible "voter ID" legislation (though many, especially the Democrats and minorities in favor, likely don't understand what it does or its intended purpose) and Gov. Perry's decision to turn down stimulus funds for unemployment insurance (buying the argument that too many strings are attached). Predictably, the poll respondents think the federal government is spending too much money but want more money spent on infrastructure, education and health care, and tax cuts (but - surprise - not on bailouts), despite deficits.

All in all, the results are pretty interesting and you can read them in full (it's not long) here.

UPDATE: More polling shows Texans approve of President Obama's performance so far and are very undecided on our upcoming primary races (which makes sense since we don't even know who all if running, and for what, yet).

The Difference Between the Right and the Left

Is basically summed up by their separate reactions to facts. In the face of polling giving every indication that Obama will comfortably win tomorrow, Democrats wait with baited breath for the election to be stolen from them. In the face of polling giving every indication that McCain will go down in flames tomorrow, right-wingers trumpet the imminent McCain victory. 

Union Members for Obama

Those white working-class voters that McCain is counting on to stage a coup in Pennsylvania? If the AFL-CIO's itnernal polls are to be believed, they're going to have to be something other than union members:

Among veterans, retirees and gun owners -- the three groups we microtargeted communication to in the final weeks of persuasion -- we've seen the numbers improve dramatically.

Among union gun owners, it's now 58-30 Obama, up from 48-41 in early September, a 21 point jump.

Among veterans we're at 58-32, up from 49-41 in early September. (+18)

And among retirees, we're now at 59-31, up from 52-37, a 14 point improvement, nearly double the margin

McCain's Nightmare

National polls may show a small tightening for McCain which state polls do not reflect yet, but there's one state that's tightening in a direction that McCain probably did not anticipate:

Sen. John McCain's once-comfortable lead in Arizona has all but evaporated, according to a new poll that has the underdog Republican presidential candidate struggling in his own backyard.

With less than a week until Election Day, McCain is leading his Democratic rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, by 2 points, 46 to 44, down from a 7-point lead a month ago and a double-digit lead this summer, according to a poll from Arizona State University.

Factor in the 3-percentage point margin of error, and a race that was once a nearly sure thing for McCain is now a toss-up, pollsters say.

Most polls have shown McCain with a comfortable 10-15 point lead for most of the race, and most polls still show McCain with a lead in the range of 5-8 points, but all have tightened. I would still put odds against Obama taking Arizona, or even losing by a very slim margin, but the mere fact that McCain is trailing in his own state tells you a lot about how his campaign is doing even before you take into consideration the horrible numbers he's facing in other states.

UDPATE: Matthew DeLong reminds us that Obama has managed to build such momentum in the state despite the fact that neither candidate is spending much (if any) money on advertising in Arizona.

UPDATE II: Nate Silver dismisses the idea of a lag between state and national polls that I reference above.

National Numbers Horrible for McCain

More bad news for McCain, from the Pew Research Center:

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain.

While Obama’s support levels have not increased much in recent weeks, a growing percentage of his backers now say they support him strongly. Currently, 74% of Obama voters say they support him strongly, up from 65% in mid-September. A much smaller majority of McCain backers (56%) say they support him strongly, which is largely unchanged from mid-September.

McCain is trailing Obama in early voting by twenty percent, which is simply incredible. The enthusiasm of Obama supporters has only intensified, while McCain's remains essentially unchanged. Now if you're a Republican you're going to argue that these voters may be voting early, but they can still only vote once. But a more measured response might be to acknowledge that the enthusiasm that is reflected by such stunning early voting totals will almost certainly carry over to election day; it's not as if a majority of Obama voters will turn out prior to Nov. 4th.

It's this Bad?

Okay, so a Washington Post poll puts Obama up by eight in Virginia, but to me this poll result says even more:

It’s not considered a swing state, but Sen. John McCain’s home state of Arizona may open a window into the state of the national race. Another poll released over the weekend here shows McCain’s lead has shrunk by 10 percentage points in the past month.
According to the survey — conducted by Myers Research and Grove Insight on behalf of Project New West, a Democratic strategy group — McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama in Arizona by just four percentage points. The same poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus four points, gave McCain a 14-point lead in mid-September.

Yes, you read that right. Project New West puts McCain up by four in his home state. Now Arizona is one of those states that's trending Democratic thanks to changes in Demographics, but still...it's McCain's home state, and Obama isn't even contesting Arizona. Maybe this poll is an outlier, and maybe not, but still...if it's that close in Arizona, what does that say about McCain's chances overall?

UPDATE: Rasmussen has McCain up by only five points so no, Project New West's poll isn't an outlier. Other polls tell a similar story.

God, I wish Election Day was this Tuesday!

With Election Day just 9 days out and early voting already under way, things are looking great for Obama and it is becoming more and more difficult for McCain to turn it around. His "kitchen sink" strategy has failed to gain any traction, especially as campaign embarrassments and bad economic news keep piling up. Obama has had a solid and stable lead for about a month now, leading nationally by 8 points according to the current RealClearPolitics poll average (of course, in some polls he has double-digit leads but that matches what the daily tracking polls usually have). Obama is gaining in all demographic groups (he is now winning more white voters than any Democrat has since LBJ), McCain's and Palin's favorables continue to increase, and more voters say they are committed to voting for Obama than McCain.

But it is the electoral map that is most encouraging: Obama now leads in states adding up to a 375 electoral vote landslide (this includes Missouri, which has voted for the winner of every presidential race since 1904 with just one exception). He is leading in Indiana where Dems haven't won since 1964. He is tied is North Dakota and Montana, and gaining in Georgia and even McCain's home state of Arizona!

Charlie Cook laid out the other metrics that point to an Obama victory:

-"No candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win."

-Early voting has started (and, I'll add, turnout is great for Obama groups)

-The unprecedented surge of Democratic registrations this year

-"With Obama now outspending McCain routinely by margins of 3- and 4-to-1 in advertising in so many states, it's hard to see how the Arizonan's campaign can drive a message." And his organization is just fuckin' awesome.

-The "Bradley effect" happened a long time ago and may not even be real, and increased turnout from African Americans and the youth should be sufficient to offset it

Now with all that said, Dems still don't want to get cocky or complacent and I'm glad the Obama campaign is not. Even though Obama's big lead should help mitigate the effects of an "October surprise," 10 days is a long time in politics. As good as early voting has been so far, a lot of people still have yet to vote. Oh hell, and the Republicans could just plain damn try to steal the election like they did the last two times (I mean, West Virginia electronic voting machines are changing Obama votes to McCain votes for god's sake!). We're just lucky our electoral hopes don't hinge on one state where a Republican secretary of state resides!

But as cautiously optimistic as I want to be, these good signs are damn exciting. There's nothing I want more than an Obama landslide. And to see a Sen. Al Franken and the defeat of Saby Chambliss when the Obama wave carries Dems to a 60-seat majority in the Senate and a greater majority in the House. And to see that wave give Texas Dems control of the state legislature. These things can all happen. They all SHOULD happen. This country needs nothing less a solid public mandate for change from the last 8 years.

Let's make sure Obama gets it.

The Path to Victory

Either the fellas in the McCain campaign really think McCain still has a chance, or they're talking a good game. The truth is though, winning the election has never looked more improbable for McCain. Let's compare and contrast:

Mr. McCain’s advisers said the key to victory was reeling back those Republican states where Mr. Obama has them on the run: Florida, where Mr. McCain spent Thursday; Indiana; Missouri; North Carolina; Ohio; and Virginia. If he can hang on to all those states as well as others that are reliably red, he would put into his column 260 of the 270 electoral votes necessary to win. Mr. McCain’s advisers said they would look for the additional electoral votes they need either by taking Pennsylvania from the Democrats, or putting together some combination of Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Mr. McCain’s advisers are most concerned about Virginia, and understandably so. On the other side of the coin, Mr. McCain’s advisers believe that if he wins or comes close in Pennsylvania, he will probably win in Ohio and Florida. Aides to Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama agree that Mr. McCain remains very much in the game in Ohio and Florida. Not easy, but not impossible either.

Just to be clear, McCain needs to hold those states just to get to 260 electoral votes. The most favorable polls discussed in the 538 post that I like to above, do not make this seems likely. In fact, according to yesterday's polls, McCain is trailing in Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida (by a 4-7 point margin in the latter.) Polls from the day before show Obama ahead by 2-3 points in Virginia, an even race (roughly) in Ohio and McCain ahead in Indiana. As for the rest of the strategy, picking up Pennsylvania or some combination of other states? Well, it's safe to say that Pennsylvania is now Obama territory as he commands double digit leads in the state. All of the other states are now trending towards Obama. But it's worse than that; Obama not only holds lead in key battleground states, but he appears to be picking up steam in states that were considered safe for McCain, such as Montana, Indiana, North Dakota, and Nebraska. Obama is in a position not only to take the battleground states off the map, but take some of McCain's states away as well. That's why people are catching the scent of a blowout on Nov. 4th, beyond even just a close victory for Obama.

The McCain campaign is also hoping for uncertainty in the polls, but they're hedging their bets where there's nothing to hedge. Some polls are close no doubt, but even dismissing the polls that show the largest gap between the candidates fails to erase Obama's lead in key states. Polls can be unreliable no doubt, based on who's doing the polling and their methodology, but considered in aggregate the evidence that Obama is ahead in many key states is undeniable.

And besides, if any numbers are off, they're likely to be in Obama's favor. As we've discussed, the Democrat's voter registration efforts are paying off as voters are turning out in droves to early vote in places like Florida, Texas, Ohio and North Carolina. Those voters are voting Obama in overwhelming numbers, and this phenomenon may or may not be reflected in polls for Obama.

Now, that's not to say that something huge could happen yet that could throw this election McCain's way. But by all indicators, it would have to be a very large happening indeed. 

Polling the Battleground States

Poll results from University of Wisconsin's Big Ten Battleground Polls and Quinnipiac University show Obama amassing unassailable leads in key battleground states:

Most of the national polls -- including our NBC/WSJ survey -- are now showing Obama with a double-digit national lead. And here come a slew of brand-new state polls that also suggest Obama is in command of this presidential contest. The University of Wisconsin’s Big Ten Battleground polls have Obama up 10 points in Indiana (51%-41%), 13 points in Iowa (52%-39%), 22 in Michigan (58%-36%), 19 in Minnesota (57%-38%), 12 in Ohio (53%-41%), 11 in Pennsylvania (52%-41%), 13 in Wisconsin (53%-40%), and nearly 30 in Obama’s home state of Illinois (61%-32%). Meanwhile, there are new Quinnipiac surveys that show Obama up five points in Florida (49%-44%), 14 in Ohio (52%-38%), and 13 in Pennsylvania (53%-40%). And finally, new CNN/Time surveys find Obama ahead by five points among likely voters in Nevada (51%-46%), four points in North Carolina (51%-47%), four in Ohio (50%-46%), and 10 points in Virginia (54%-44%). The lone state survey that shows McCain ahead: CNN/Time’s West Virginia poll, where McCain’s nine (53%-44%).

Nate Silver says it's fair to consider these polls outliers or "best-case" scenarios, but that you also should consider the trends mapped by the polls, which consistently show Obama picking up more and more support in these states. Regardless of the actual numbers (which are probably lower than this) Obama is clearly gaining momentum going into Nov. 4th.

Imploding

Yes, this is what the right has come to; faced with undeniable polling evidence that shows McCain trailing nationawide and in key battleground states, they attack the integrity of polls. This blogger's powerful argument against the fairness of polling comes in the form of a story about a horse that can count, and research into conformity. No, I'm serious. No really....I'm serious. Instead of asking you to read the whole thing (I wouldn't ask that of anyone) just read David Weigel's takedown of the stupid here.

Daily Polls

Before you read any of this say to yourself three times "The race isn't over." Take a deep breath. Now, read this:

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report shows Barack Obama with a 52% to 41% lead over John McCain.

These results, based on Oct. 5-7 polling, are the best for Obama during the campaign, both in terms of his share of the vote and the size of his lead over McCain.

Voter preferences seem to have stabilized for the moment, as Obama has held a double-digit lead over McCain in each of the last three individual nights of polling.

Concern about the economy seems to be playing to Obama's advantage; he overtook McCain when the financial crisis worsened in the middle of September, and his strong showing today coincides with the worst rating of the economy this year (59% of Americans describe current economic conditions as "poor").

That's Gallup's national poll of course, but as we know, national polling proceeds trends in state polling. So what do the state polls say?

John McCain is in deep trouble. In spite of some incremental gains that McCain has made in some of the national tracking polls, the set of state polling that follows is so strong for Obama that he continues to hit record marks in all three of our projection metrics. We are now projecting Obama to win the election 90.5 percent of the time, with an average of 346.8 electoral votes, and a 5.4-point margin in the national popular vote.

Of course, these polls do not factor in last night's debate. But given what polls are saying about that, it is impossible to imagine that the debate will do anything to reverse Obama's gains to any significant degree.

More Debate Polling

Polling by Democracy Corps supports the view that this debate only strengthened Obama's growing lead over McCain:

Barack Obama once again won tonight’s debate, and undecided voters are prepared to move toward his candidacy, according to Democracy Corps research conducted around tonight’s second presidential debate. Unlike the first debate, when Democracy Corps research showed half the voters remaining undecided and the two candidates splitting the other half, the vote following the second debate showed a decisive shift toward Senator Obama. This debate was a clear victory for Obama who made major gains not just in the vote but also on personal favorability and key attributes like ‘has what it takes to be President,’ which ultimately drove undecided voters into his column.

McCain’s ongoing strategy to portray Obama as too liberal and someone who will raise Americans’ taxed did not succeed. After the debate, Obama maintained a 16-point advantage on taxes and, more importantly, the proportion of voters seeing him as too liberal went down and the number of voters who saw him as independent rose 26 points.

McCain’s negativity led voters to tune out as the debate progressed, which was reflected in dial scores which remained mostly flat. Moreover, McCain made little or no improvement on key attributes such as being tied to special interests and offering a different path from Bush. However, just as after the first presidential debate, McCain did improve his standing as a maverick politician.

The McCain shifters were not enthusiastic about McCain and even complained about the choice of Sarah Palin, who they believe may truly need to fill McCain’s shoes. But they ultimately supported McCain because the debate failed to dispel the strong doubts about Obama that they brought with them prior to tonight. These doubts primarily centered on the questions that have been raised about Obama’s “associations” with dubious characters and whether he has the experience required to achieve all the things that he promises. They did not express a sense that things in the country would improve substantially under a McCain administration, but they were holding back from the unknown Obama.

These results favor the notion that the debates have served more as a referendum on Obama (as will the larger election) than a great contest of ideas between the candidates (though of course it is that too; issues actually matter to most voters, to one extent or another.) And it's clear that the more people see of Obama, the more they like him. Unfortunately for McCain, there's very little he can do about that. Old tropes about tax-and-spend liberals aren't working in the current climate. Attacking Obama as a great unknown appears to work on only those who don't like what they see of Obama in the debates, and raising Obama's associations only appears to work on a subset of voters who give those issues any credence. The fact is Obama comes off as calm, cool, reasoned and likeable, and recent developments favor his approach. There just isn't much that McCain can do to counter that.

Today's Polls

McCain and Palin are hoping that bringing up tired allegations about Obama's associations will revive their flagging campaign, but it would probably take Obama being caught with coke and hookers to undo numbers like these:

Polls in five key battleground states in the race for the White House released Tuesday suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making major gains.

The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls of likely voters in Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin reflect a significant nationwide shift toward the Democratic presidential nominee.

CNN is shifting North Carolina, with 15 electoral votes, from leaning toward McCain to toss-up. CNN is moving Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes, and New Hampshire and its four electoral votes from toss-up to “lean Obama.”

Finally, CNN is switching Michigan and its 17 electoral votes from leaning toward Obama to safe for Obama. The McCain campaign announced last week that it was shifting its resources out of the once hotly-contested Rust Belt state, instead intensify efforts in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Ohio.

With these moves, CNN estimates that if the presidential election were held today, Obama would win states with 264 electoral votes and McCain would win states with 174 electoral votes, with 100 electoral votes still up for grabs. To win the White House, 270 electoral votes are needed. Obama’s lead has expanded by 29 electoral votes when compared his margin in CNN’s last electoral map, which was released on October 1.

Nate Silver summarizes based on the polls he's reading:

You can read these numbers as well as I can. Obama leads by 6 in North Carolina? 12 in Virginia? 7 in Florida? 3 in Missouri? Obviously, I am cherrypicking some of the more pro-Obama results here ... but the point is, there are a lot of favorable results these days for Barack Obama.

...the proper strategy is probably now to play a fairly large map; Obama in particular wants to keep as many doors open as possible if and when something bad happens to his campaign.

For the time being, however, John McCain is facing third and long -- and appears that he's about to get sacked.

The usual caveats apply...but still. 

Ohio

More good news for Obama, as a Washington Post-ABC News poll gives him a six point lead over McCain in Ohio:

Overall, among likely voters in the new poll, 51 percent said they would support Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joseph Biden, if the election were held today, while 45 percent said they would back McCain and the GOP vice presidential nominee, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

Ohio voters see McCain as more capable of dealing with Iraq and terrorism, but those issues are far less important this year. Just 9 percent of voters call them their top voting issues.

About two in 10 voters are "movable," nearly double the proportion who were uncommitted two weeks before the 2004 election, suggesting the possibility of some significant shifts in the weeks ahead.

Beyond that, Obama holds a 2 to 1 advantage over McCain as the candidate most likely to bring needed change to Washington.

There are indications from the survey that Obama also may have an early advantage in mobilizing and turning out Ohio voters over the next month. He has more enthusiastic supporters than McCain does and has reached more voters in Ohio than his rival.

Nearly four in 10 voters (38 percent) said they have already been contacted by someone from the Obama campaign either by phone or in person. That is 12 points higher than the number who said they have heard from the McCain campaign. It also is higher than the number who said they had been called or visited by either the campaigns of President Bush or Democrat John F. Kerry in mid-October four years ago.

Including email and text messages from the campaigns this year, the Obama campaign has contacted 43 percent of all voters and the McCain campaign has been in touch with 33 percent. Both sides have been successful at reaching out to the party faithful, but Obama has done somewhat better in targeting independents.

I find it incredible that only nine percent of voters rank terrorism and the war in Iraq as their top issues. That's so dramatic a change from 2004 that it's difficult to believe, and it's a testament to the dramatic impact the steady drumbeat of bad news about the economy has had on the race.

The Secret Weapon

Everybody, ourselves included, love to poll-watch for signs of who's leading in the presidential race. But Democrats have a not-so-secret (but hugely undervalued) weapon going into November; new voter registrations:

In the past year, the rolls have expanded by about 4 million voters in a dozen key states -- 11 Obama targets that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 (Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico) plus Pennsylvania, the largest state carried by Sen. John F. Kerry that Sen. John McCain is targeting.

In Florida, Democratic registration gains this year are more than double those made by Republicans; in Colorado and Nevada the ratio is 4 to 1, and in North Carolina it is 6 to 1. Even in states with nonpartisan registration, the trend is clear -- of the 310,000 new voters in Virginia, a disproportionate share live in Democratic strongholds.

The Obama campaign says it expects the numbers of new voters in swing states to swell even more later this month as elections offices process the tens of thousands of registrations still pouring in. And it exudes confidence about its ability to turn the new voters out with a vigorous follow-up operation. "This a lesson we learned. The old-fashioned way of registering voters was to stand on the corner of the street, stand on the campus quad and register one by one, which we still do," said Jon Carson, the campaign's national field director. "But another important component is getting people the information they need to participate."

Those new registrations turn into voters who will show up to the polls and vote Democratic.

The Obama campaign predicts that 80 percent of the voters it is registering will support the Democrat, and that 75 percent will turn out, a rate it bases on turnout during the primaries. That means that for every 100,000 voters it registers, it would net a 45,000-vote edge on Election Day. In Virginia, that projection would mean an extra four percentage points from this year's new voters in a state that Bush won by eight points in 2004.

Donald Green, a Yale political scientist, said history suggests turnout rates lower than 75 percent among truly newly registered voters. The Obama campaign's higher rates of turnout during the primaries may have been boosted by voters who were re-registering at a new address or under a new party, he said. "New registrants tend to vote at reasonably high rates but not very high rates," he said. "Most surge in turnout comes from already registered voters."

But Pearce, the North Carolina consultant, speculated that this year's election might shatter some of those expectations, based on the energy he is seeing and the reach of Obama's get-out-the-vote operation there. "It's the enthusiasm gap," he said. He added: "They'll get a lot of them out on Election Day. I'm not an organization guy -- I'm skeptical of the people who think the organization is going to turn it all. But they've made me a believer."

Another example of this phenomenon is in Georgia, where the new voter registrations of black voters match that of whites, even though blacks comprise only about twenty-nine percent of the state's population, a phenomenon which threatens to slash away the lead McCain has even in a "safe" red state like Georgia.

A seventy-five percent tunrout might be overestimating the impact somewhat, as there's nothing to suggest that turnout in the general election will be the same as turnout in the primary. Then again, perhaps they will be thes same, or perhaps turnout in the general will be greater. Either way, those numbers means tens of thousands of votes for Obama that Kerry didn't have in 2004, good tidings indeed given that Obama is already dead even or leading McCain in polls in many key states.

UPDATE: Also, it would be remiss of me not to point out that the recent poll results, combined with these voter registration tallies, could have a dramatic impact on races down the ballot for the Senate and House. And if you're a Republican, when it rains it pours. Races that two weeks ago were looking like long shots for Dems, are suddenly neck-and-neck:

SurveyUSA. 9/28-29. Likely voters. 3.8% (9/14-16 results)

Chambliss (R) 46 (53)
Martin (D) 44 (36)

That's a 15-point swing in just two weeks, and our Research 2000 poll confirms SUSA's latest numbers. This one is neck and neck, with Chambliss -- the ass who morphed Democratic war hero and triple amputee Max Cleland into Osama Bin Laden -- suddenly falling well-short of the magic 50 percent "safe" mark for an incumbent.

Now add massive turnout by Democratic voters on Nov. 4th, and you have a recipe for a stunning upset, not only in Georgia, but in other states as well. The economic meltdown appears to have hurt the Republican brand at all levels.

New McCain strategy: be even more aggressive

McCain's people have been looking at the same polls we have over the past couple of weeks, all of which seem to show Obama gaining a solid lead in electoral votes. So close, as a matter of fact, that he really only needs one swing state to claim the Presidency, whereas things are significantly more difficult for McCain.

One of the biggest pieces of news in the campaigns recently was the McCain camp's desertion of Michigan. Although a variety of factors are involved, it looks like the Democrat's 50-state strategy is paying off by making McCain spend more time and money defending what he thought were safe states, also causing him to be unable to project as much force as he wants to in some key states.

In response to his falling numbers in the polls, the Washington Post tells us today that the McCain campaign's answer will be to talk tougher in the ads:

Sen. John McCain and his Republican allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Sen. Barack Obama's character, believing that to win in November they must shift the conversation back to questions about the Democrat's judgment, honesty and personal associations, several top Republicans said.

With just a month to go until Election Day, McCain's team has decided that its emphasis on the senator's biography as a war hero, experienced lawmaker and straight-talking maverick is insufficient to close a growing gap with Obama. The Arizonan's campaign is also eager to move the conversation away from the economy, an issue that strongly favors Obama and has helped him to a lead in many recent polls.

Shifting the debate is something that Republicans have excelled at in recent years. Before we were even in Afghanistan the neocons were talking about Iraq. Instead of the failure of the first four years of Bush policies, we were talking about whether Kerry had actually chased a guy around a hut and shot him. Now it appears they want to shift the debate back to Obama's experience and the nature of his associations with less than savory characters William Ayers and Antoin Rezko.

I'm not giving predictions here, but just from my observations it doesn't seem like them trying to get people interested in shady characters from Obama's past is going to gain any more traction now than it has already. Despite the bailout package being passed yesterday, just about nobody thinks this is really going to turn our economy around dramatically. It should help, but just about nothing is going to change the situation very quickly. Unless some private investor happens to have a couple trillion to hand out, we're in for the long haul.

Earlier, in his weekly radio address, Bush spoke cautiously about the economy's future. "My administration will move as quickly as possible, but the benefits of this package will not all be felt immediately. The federal government will undertake this rescue plan at a careful and deliberate pace to ensure that your tax dollars are spent wisely," he said.

You know when Bush isn't telling you the economy is rosy and dismissing any evidence to the contrary, things are pretty grim. To get back to the point, it appears that bad economic news is good for Obama. Can McCain refocus the conversation on Obama's credentials? I don't know, but I just get the feeling that for the average voter, we're past that point. Besides which, Obama has shown he knows how to hit back; all he has to do is point out that McCain "backed Bush" (by which he means voted in support of a Presidentially backed bill) 95% of the time in 2007. Both arguments will probably work just as well on voters, which means not much would change.

Obama is apparently trying to shift the dialog to healthcare, which gives him an opportunity to completely beat up Republicans for not allowing Democrats to pass a universal health care package and especially McCain for what Obama and Biden have called (to paraphrase) a plan to offer "a $5,000 credit to offset a $12,000 loss". I'm honestly not sure if this is going to capture the attention of those voters still swaying in the breeze, but it at least has a chance. I will make one prediction though; if Obama can shift the dialog his way before McCain can (or rather blocks McCain from doing it), McCain will have virtually no chance to refocus attention again before the election arrives. And if that's the case, he's better off just hoping for a miracle.

VP Debate Polls

I'm loving the polls these days, so here's another for you; this time, it's the reaction of uncommitted voters to the VP debate last night (h/t Charles Kuffner):

CBS News and Knowledge Networks have conducted a nationally representative poll of 473 uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight's vice presidential debate. 

After the first presidential debate, a similar survey showed that more uncommitted voters identified Barack Obama as the winner 

Final numbers from tonight's poll have yet to come in, but we do have some early results. (These numbers may change as more respondents complete the survey.) They suggest that once again more voters have responded favorably to the Democratic candidate. 

Forty-six percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed say Democrat Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Republican Sarah Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie. 

Eighteen percent of previously uncommitted percent say they are now committed to the Obama-Biden ticket. Ten percent say they are now committed to McCain-Palin. Seventy-one percent are still uncommitted. 

Both candidates improved their overall image tonight. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed say they now have a better impression of Biden. Five percent say they have a worse opinion of the Delaware senator, while 42 percent say they debate did not change their opinion. 

Fifty-five percent say they now have a better opinion of Palin. Fourteen percent say they have a worse opinion, while 30 percent say their opinion hasn't changed. 

After the debate, 66 percent see Palin as knowledgeable about important issues – up from 43 percent before the debate. But Biden still has the advantage on this – 98 percent saw him as knowledgeable after the debate. That figure was 79 percent before the debate. 

I think polls like this confirm the first impression of Adam (and others) that this debate wasn't a game-changer in either direction, which is fine since a game-changer is what McCain, not Obama, needs.

McCain Pulling Out Of Michigan

Big news out of the McCain camp today (h/t co-blogger Adam):

John McCain is pulling out of Michigan, according to two Republicans, a stunning move a month away from Election Day that indicates the difficulty Republicans are having in finding blue states to put in play.

McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.

The probably got a look at this:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan shows Sen. Barack Obama has opened up a ten point lead over Sen. John McCain, 51% to 41%.

This is in a state that Kerry won in 2004, but just barely, and in which Obama held only a one point lead immediately following the Republican convention. But the dramatic shift in the polls over the last couple of weeks has essentially robbed the McCain campaign of any chance they had at flipping the state, and with their troubles in other key battleground states I think they realize that they have to devote resources to protecting their leads or challenging Obama's in those states.

New Polls

From here on out, just assume that each post I do on recent polling data regarding the presidential race is prefaced with a "for what it's worth" or "don't read too much into this." That being said, the polls continue to look good for Obama. This Pew Research poll reveals that Obama has increased his lead over McCain among registered voters, is trusted more on the economy, and that more voters now have a negative opinion of VP pick Sarah Palin. This poll by Quinnipiac University finds similar trends in crucial swing states. Members of the GOP who are rightly concerned about these numbers are pressing McCain to go negative (or more accurately, more negative, running ads linking Obama to the tired old standbys of Wright, Ayers and Rezko that have already failed to sink his campaign) but Nate Silver at 538 says such a strategy isn't likely to help McCain as Obama's favorability ratings among his softer supporters are hardening. The first debate apparently has done little to change the underlying dynamic in the race.

UPDATE: David Wiegel at Hin & Run provides with an interesting historical backdrop for these numbers. In short, Carter provides a precedent for an in-a-month meltdown, but circumstances were vastly different in 1980.

UPDATE II: So now the McCain camps strategy when it comes to Palin is to send her out to connect with voters via right-wing radio:

"We're going to be continue to put her in settings where she has an opportunity to shine, to be on offense," the adviser said. "We've gotten very good feedback from the public from Hugh Hewitt interview."

The adviser suggested that the campaign's efforts at damage control following Palin's interview with Katie Couric may have been hampered by the fact that the governor wasn't doing more friendly interviews to counter her flubs on Russia and the congressional bailout bill, which have reverberated throughout the blogosphere and even turned Palin into a punchline on Saturday Night Live.

"We acknowledge that perhaps she should have been out there doing more," said the adviser, who argued that "it's not fair to judge her off one or two sound bites" from the network interviews.

So if we are to believe this, she's going to connect with voters by going into settings where the only people who are likely to hear her are the ones who already adore her. Perhaps I'm missing something, but this seems largely to me like an effort to keep Palin from increasingly turning off voters who have legitimate questions about her views and her experience, and play up her primary asset instead, which is the adoration with which the right-wing regards her. It just seems rather obvious to me that McCain and his advisors thought they could pick someone who would simultaneously fire up the base and whose views, experience (or lack thereof) and questionable acts as both mayor and governor could be largely downplayed and minimized in the minds of voters. That strategy appears to have failed; Palin has fired up the voters McCain should expect to already have on his side, and has largely failed to impress the voters he desperately needs to win, and now her media appearances in non-controlled settings are to be curtailed.