The Chances

The race is still tight, but Phillip Martin at Burnt Orange Report remind us why we should be cautiously optimistic that Obama will win in November. Obama is doing very well in key battleground states. Nate Silver at 538 explains what he thinks is happening (with a bonus dig at media pundits whose hasty conclusions about the state of the race must now necessarily be revised yet again.)

UPDATE: Also, the bump in polls that McCain got after selecting Palin for VP appears to have worn off, certainly as the flood of stories like this one about her time as Govenor, or this one about her lack of qualifications, has altered the public perception of the candidate.